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首页 贝恩咨询分析方法-Ratioanalysis2

贝恩咨询分析方法-Ratioanalysis2.ppt

贝恩咨询分析方法-Ratioanalysis2

小饼的炊饼
2011-03-21 0人阅读 举报 0 0 暂无简介

简介:本文档为《贝恩咨询分析方法-Ratioanalysis2ppt》,可适用于战略管理领域

Author:CollinsQianRatioAnalysisMarchAgendaAgendaUsingratiosTypesofkeyratiosprofitabilityturnoverleverageliquiditycoverageReturnonEquityRatioexercisesForecastingexerciseAbbreviationsKeytakeawaysAnalyzingRatiosAnalyzingRatiosRatiosinisolationaremeaninglessAcompany'sratiosmustbeexaminedovertimeandoragainstitscompetitors’ratiosHistoricalcomparisonCompetitivecomparisonComparepresentratioswithsamecompany'shistoricalratiosInstablesituations,historicalratiosmaybeusedtoprojectfutureperformanceCompareacompany’sratioswithsimilarfirms’ratiosorwithindustryaveragesatthesamepointintimeLookfortrendsLookatrelativeperformanceTheArtofRatioAnalysisTheArtofRatioAnalysisWhichratiosaremostimportantinagivensituationWhatitemsshouldbeincludedexcludedincalculatingtheratiosHowmuchinfluencedoesmanagementhaveovertheratiosWhatdotheratiossayaboutthefirm’sstrategyRatioanalysisisanartaswellasascienceTheNeedforJudgmentTheNeedforJudgmentPotentialProblemManagementcansubstantiallyinfluencefinancialsintheshorttermImplicationsNeedtousejudgmenttounderstandfinancialsRatioanalysisrequireskeenjudgmentFinancialstatementdataishistorical,notproformaCrosscompanycomparisonsaremeaninglessifadjustmentsarenotmadefordifferentaccountingconventionsThetimingofthereportingperiodinfluencesfundsflowsandrequirementsNeedtounderstandthathistorydoesNOTnecessarilypredictfutureNeedtobeverysensitiveaboutindustryspecificseasonalityandcyclicalityNeedtostandardizeacrosscompaniestoadjustfordifferentaccountingmethodsAgendaAgendaUsingratiosTypesofkeyratiosprofitabilityturnoverleverageliquiditycoverageReturnonEquityRatioexercisesForecastingexerciseAbbreviationsKeytakeawaysTypesofRatiosTypesofRatiosRatioshelpusunderstandhowwellacompanyisperformingSpecifically,howmuchreturnisitgeneratingwithwhatlevelofriskHowwelldoesthecompanymanagecostsrelativetorevenuesReturnRiskCoverageInterestchargeFixedchargecoverageLiquidityCurrentratioQuickratioLeverageAssettoequityDebttoequityDebttototalcapitalTurnoverReceivablesInventoryPayablesAssetProfitabilityOperatingmarginROSGrossmarginHoweffectiveisthecompanyinmanagingitsresourcesWhataretherespectiveclaimsofdebtandequityownersHowriskyisthebusinessIsthecompanyabletomeetitsshorttermobligationsIsthecompanyabletomeetitslongtermobligationsProfitabilityRatiosDefinitionsProfitabilityRatiosDefinitions*Thisisnotaprofitabilityratio,butitdoesimpactROSProfitabilityratiosuselineitemsfromtheincomestatementRatiosDefinitionsGrossprofitmargin(orgrossmargin)SalescostofgoodssoldSalesOperatingprofitmargin(oroperatingmargin)EarningsbeforeinterestandtaxesSalesReturnonsales(ROS)ProfitaftertaxSalesEffectivetaxrate*TaxesProfitbeforetaxProfitabilityRatiosDescriptionProfitabilityRatiosDescriptionProfitability(ormargin)ratiosareafunctionofboththeindustryandacompany'spositionwithintheindustryboundariesaresetbytheoperatingcharacteristicsoftheindustrywithintheseboundariesprofitabilityratiosaredeterminedbyaplayer’srelativepositionBaintypicallyusesgrossprofitandoperatingprofittomeasureprofitabilityROScanbealteredbynonoperatingactivities,suchassourcesoffinancingortaxratemanipulationsExtraordinaryitems,becausetheyareforunusualevents,suchasdiscontinueditemsorassetsales,areexcludedwhenweanalyzetheperformanceofthebasebusinessProfitabilityratiosmeasureafirm’sabilitytomanagecostsrelativetorevenuesProfitabilityRatiosOverTimeProfitabilityRatiosOverTimeGrossprofitmarginshouldstayconstantorincreasebecausecostofgoodssoldshouldbeaconstantpercentofsalesorshoulddecreaseascompanygetspriceincreasesandorvolumediscountsOperatingmarginshouldincreaseasfixedadministrativeandsalescostsarespreadoveragreaternumberofunitsEffectivetaxrateshouldstayconstantordecreasesincealargerfirmisabletotakeadvantageofmoretaxsheltersAsacompanygrows,itsreturnonsalesshouldincreaseHigherreturnonsalesProfitabilityRatiosMarketLeaderProfitabilityRatiosMarketLeaderGrossprofitmarginshouldbehighersinceamarketleadercantypicallychargemoreforitsgoodsandorreceivethegreatestvolumediscountsfromsuppliersOperatingprofitmarginshouldbesignificantlyhigher,becausehighervolumemeansfixedcostsarespreadovermoreunitsandbecausethegrossprofitmarginishigherThereshouldbenosignificantdifferenceintheeffectivetaxrateReturnonsalesshouldbesignificantlyhigherbecausetheoperatingmarginshouldbesignificantlyhigherThemarketleaderinanindustryshouldhavethebestprofitabilityratiosThisisconsistentwiththeROSRMSconceptwhichsaysthatcompanieswithhighrelativemarketsharehavehighreturnsonsalesTurnoverRatiosDefinitionsTurnoverRatiosDefinitionsNote:Average=(YearBeginningYearEnd)*Salesisoftenagoodproxy**Costofgoodssoldisoftenagoodproxy***Typicallyweusedays(ie,year)fortheperiodTurnoverratiosuseacombinationofincomestatementandbalancesheetitemsRatiosDefinitionsReceivablesturnoverCreditsalesinperiod*AccountsreceivableaveragebalanceInventoryturnoverCostofgoodssoldinperiodAverageinventoryinperiodPayablesturnoverPurchasesonaccount**AccountspayableaveragebalanceAssetturnoverSalesinperiodAverageassetsAnyturnoverratiocanbeexpressedasaperiodratiowhichmeasuresthenumberofdaysinthecycleDaysinperiod***TurnoverratioPeriodratio=TurnoverRatiosTransactionCycleTurnoverRatiosTransactionCycle*Accountspayable,inventory,andaccountsreceivablearethemajorcomponentsofworkingcapitalItiscriticalforafirmtomanageitspayables,inventory,andreceivables*CashinflowCashcollectedforsalesmadeCasholowRawmaterialspurchasedCashdisbursedforrawmaterialspurchasedFinishedgoodsinventorySalesmadeAccountsreceivableperiodAccountspayableperiodXXXTurnoverRatiosDescriptionTurnoverRatiosDescriptionTurnoverratiosmeasureshowmanytimesperyearagivenresourceisconsumedPeriodratiosmeasurethenumberofdaysthatistakesforagivenresourceto“turnover”Management’sobjectiveistostretchouttheaccountspayableperiod(ie,havelowaccountspayableturnover)andshortentheperiodsforaccountsreceivableandinventory(ie,havehighaccountsreceivableandinventoryturnover)TurnoverratiosmeasurehowwellafirmismanagingitsresourcesTurnoverRatiosTradeoffsTurnoverRatiosTradeoffsRatioImprovementsDecreasethereceivablescollectionperiodie,collecttheaccountsreceivablefasterDecreasetheinventoryholdingperiodie,sellcompletedproductsfasterIncreasetheaccountpayableperiodie,takelongertopaysuppliersStrategicTradeoffIfthereceivablescollectionperiodistooshort,customersmaybuyatacompetitorthathasmoregenerouscreditterms(Oftenthisperiodisdictatedbyindustrynorms)IftheinventoryholdingperiodistooshortthecompanymaynothaveenoughinventorytofillabigorderAlso,thecompanymaynotbeabletooutlastastrike,eitheratitsownfacilityoratoneofitsprimarysuppliers’facilitiesIftheaccountspayableperiodistoolong,supplierscouldraisetheirprices,chargeinterest(oftenatveryhighrates),orevenrefusetosupplythefirmoncreditAlso,workersmaygetrestlessiftheyhavetowaitlongertoreceivetheirpaychecksManagingturnoverratiosmeansmanagingstrategictradeoffsLeverageRatiosDefinitionsLeverageRatiosDefinitions*Allthreeratiosherearecalled“leverage”ratiosbydifferentpeople,sobesuretounderstandwhichratioisbeingusedwhensomeoneistalkingaboutleverageLeverageratiosuselineitemsfromthebalancesheetRatios*DefinitionsDuPontleverageratioAssetsEquityDebttoequityratioLongtermdebtEquityDebttototalcapitalordebttototalassetsratioTotalliabilitiesDebtequityTotalliabilitiesAssets=LeverageRatiosDescriptionLeverageRatiosDescriptionMoneycanberaisedfromdebtsources(banks,bondmarkets)orequitysources(stockholders)LeverageratiosreflectboththefinancingpoliciesofthefirmandtheriskinessofthebusinessInordertoanalyzeafirm’sleverageratios,oneneedstounderstandthedefinitionsofdebtandequityLeverageratiosmeasuretherespectiveclaimsofdebtandequityholdersDebtVersusEquityDebtVersusEquityContractualpaymentsoverthelifeoftheloanInvestorlegallyguaranteedfullreturnofprincipleplusinterestnothingabovethatIncaseofliquidation,debtorhaspreferentialclaimonproceedsfromsaleofassetsNoguaranteedpaymentsfromcommonstockInvestor“owns”partoffirmrighttoappreciationoffirm’svalueIncaseofliquidation,equityownertakeswhatisleft(maybenothing)DebtandequityhaveverydifferentcharacteristicsDebt=anythingthatcontractuallyrequirespaymentstobemadebeforetheequityholdershaveaccesstothefirm’searningsEquity=thevalueofthefirmleftoverafterallthedebtholdershavebeenpaidLowerrisktoinvestorinvestordemandslowerreturnHigherrisktoinvestorinvestordemandshigherreturnDebtQuestionsDebtandEquityDebtQuestionsDebtandEquityDebtinLeverageRatiosBaintypicallylooksonlyatlongtermdebt(debtwithatermofyearormore)AccountantsmeasuredebtasshorttermdebtpluslongtermdebtEquityinLeverageRatiosBaintypicallyusesthemarketvalueofequity(Ie,thesharepricemultipliedbythenumberofshares)Othersmayusethebookvalueofequity,whichistheamountshownonthebalancesheetDebtQuestionsDebtQuestionsAccountspayableShorttermdebtLongtermdebtCancelableleasesNoncancelableleasesPreferredstockCommonstockDeferredtaxWouldyoudefinethefollowingasdebtDebtAnswersDebtAnswersAccountspayableShorttermdebtLongtermdebtCancelableleasesNoncancelableleasesSomeitemsareclearlydebt,othersareclearlynotdebt,stillothersaredebatableNotdebtItispartofworkingcapital,andis“secured”bytheinventoryandreceivablesthatitisusedtofinanceDebt,ifitusedtofinancecapitalexpansionsofthecompanyNotdebt,ifitusedtofinanceworkingcapitalDebtNotdebtBecausetheyarecancelable,theyarenotcontractualobligationsDebtBecausetheyarenoncancelable,theyarecontractualobligations(ForallpubliclytradedUScompanies,thepresentvalueofallthenoncancelableleasepaymentsmustbedisclosedinbalancesheetfootnotes)DebatableArgumentforequitycontractualobligationstopaydividendsonpreferredstockaremetafterdebtholders’claimsaremetArgumentfordebtthereisacontractualobligationtopaydividendsonpreferredstockbeforecommonstockdividendpaymentscanbemadeNotdebtItisequityCommonstockDebt,butdebatableOftenconsidereddebtgivenlongtermnatureDeferredtaxPreferredstockLiquidityandCoverageRatiosDefinitionsLiquidityandCoverageRatiosDefinitionsLiquidityratiosuselineitemsfromthebalancesheetCoverageratiosuselineitemsfromtheincomestatementRatiosDefinitionsCurrentratioCurrentassetsCurrentliabilitiesQuickratio(acidtest)CashmarketablesecuritiesreceivablesCurrentliabilitiesInterestcoverageratioEarningsbeforeinterestandtaxesInterestexpenseFixedchargecoverageEarningsbeforeinterestandtaxesAllessentialpayments(includingleasepayments)Liquidity:Coverage:LiquidityandCoverageRatiosDescriptionLiquidityandCoverageRatiosDescriptionAcceptablevaluesfortheseratiosdifferbyindustryHowever,whenthecurrentratioorcoverageratiosfallbelowthatmeansthefirmisunabletomeetitsobligationsItisausefulexercisetocalculatehowmuchrevenuecoulddrop(orcostsrise)beforecoveragewoulddropbelowLiquidityratiosmeasurethefirm’sabilitytomeetitsshorttermobligationsCoverageratiosmeasurethefirm’sabilitytomeetitslongtermobligationsAgendaAgendaUsingratiosTypesofkeyratiosprofitabilityturnoverleverageliquiditycoverageReturnonEquityRatioexercisesForecastingexerciseAbbreviationsKeytakeawaysReturnonEquityReturnonEquityReturnonequityisdefinedasprofitaftertax(earnings)dividedbyequityItrelateseconomicoutputs(profit)toinputs(equity)IttellsustheamountofprofitsthecompanyearnedoneachdollarthestockholdersinvestedinthefirmItisimportanttonotethatnotalloftheearningsarepaidtothestockholderswhentheyareearnedOnlysomeportionoftheearningswillbereturnednowintheformofdividendsTheremainder(retainedearnings)willbereinvestedinthecompanytofinancegrowthThesizeofthedividedisdecidedbytheboardofdirectorsanindividualstockholderhasnoinfluenceoverwhenhesheactuallyreceivesthereturnthatheshehasearnedItisacombinationofprofitability,turnover,andleverageratiosReturnonequity,ROE,istheacidtestofsuccessforabusinessDuPontFormulaDuPontFormulaByseparatingROEintoitscomponents,onecangaininsightintohowtoimprovetheperformanceofabusinessROE=ProfitaftertaxEquityROE=ProfitaftertaxSalesSalesAssetsAssetsEquityXXReturnonAssetsLeverageROSAssetturnoverThisisknownastheDuPontformulaROE=ProfitabilityXTurnoverXLeverageAgendaAgendaUsingratiosTypesofkeyratiosprofitabilityturnoverleverageliquiditycoverageReturnonEquityRatioexercisesForecastingexerciseAbbreviationsKeytakeawaysUnidentifiedIndustriesExerciseUnidentifiedIndustriesExerciseTheobjectiveofthisexerciseistotestyourunderstandingoffinancialratiosExercise:Thebalancesheets(inpercentageform)andselectedratiosforsixindustriesaregivenonthefollowingpagePleasematcheachofthesixindustriestothefinancialinformationCoalminingGrocerystoresHotelsandmotelsLegalservicesPackagedsoftwarePotatochipsandsnacksUnidentifiedIndustriesExerciseDataUnidentifiedIndustriesExerciseDataUnidentifiedIndustriesExerciseAnswerUnidentifiedIndustriesExerciseAnswerCharacteristics:Financialratios:Companies:HotelsandMotelsVeryhighfixedassetsLowinventoryShortcollectionperiodLowassetturnoverHighgrossmarginHighleverageFixedassets=Inventory=Collectionperiod=daysAssetturns=xGrossmargin=Totalliabilitiestonetworth=ACoalMiningVeryhighfixedassetsLowinventoryLongcollectionperiodFixedassets=Inventory=Collectionperiod=daysBPotatoChipsSnacksLowpercentageofcashLongcollectioncycleCash=Collection=daysCGroceryStoresHighpercentageofcashLowaccountsreceivableShortcollectionperiodHighinventoryGoodliquidityratiosCash=Accountsreceivable=Collectionperiod=daysInventory=Quickratio=xcurrentratio=xDLegalServicesHighpercentageofcashAlmostzeroinventoryHighassetturnoverHighprofitabilityLongcollectionperiodCash=Inventory=Assetsturns=xGrossmargin=ROS=ROE=Collectionperiod=daysEPrepackagedSoftwareHighpercentageofcashHighaccountsreceivableLowinventoryHighgrossmarginLowfixedassetsSignificantintangibleassets(patents)Cash=Accountsreceivable=Inventory=Grossmargin=Fixedassets=Othernoncurrentassets=FGilletteExerciseGilletteExerciseExercise:PleasecalculateGilletteCompany’skeyfinancialratiosbasedonitsannualreportProfitabilityTurnoverLeverageLiquidityandcoverageTheobjectiveofthisexerciseistotestyourabilitytocalculatekeyfinancialratiosNote:Forthisexercise,donotincludemergerrelatedcostsinthecalculationsGilletteExerciseProfitabilityRatiosGilletteExerciseProfitabilityRatios*Thisisnotaprofitabilityratio,butitdoesimpactROS**ExcludingmergerrelatedcostsNonoperatingchargesshouldnotbeincludedintheoperatingprofitmarginRatiosGilletteRatioCalculationsGrossprofitmargin(orgrossmargin)SalescostofgoodssoldSalesOperatingprofitmargin(oroperatingmargin)Earningsbeforeinterestandtaxes**SalesReturnonsales(ROS)Profitaftertax**SalesEffectivetaxrate*TaxesProfitbeforetax,,==,,==(p)(p)(p,p)(p)PageNumberinAnnualReport,,=,=GilletteExerciseTurnoverRatiosGilletteExerciseTurnoverRatiosNote:Average=(YearBeginningYearEnd)*Salesisoftenagoodproxy**CostofgoodssoldisoftenagoodproxyRatiosGilletteRatioCalculationsReceivablesturnoverCreditsalesinperiod*Accountsreceivableaveragebalance,(,,)==(p,p)or=daysInventoryturnoverCostofgoodssoldinperiodAverageinventoryinperiod,(,,)=(p,p)or=days=PayablesturnoverPurchasesonaccount**Accountspayableaveragebalance,()=(p,p)or=days=AssetturnoverSalesinperiodAverageassets,(,,)=(p,p)or=days=PageNumberinAnnualReportGilletteExerciseLeverageRatiosGilletteExerciseLeverageRatios*Allthreeratiosherearecalled“leverage”ratiosbydifferentpeople,sobesuretounderstandwhichratioisbeingusedwhensomeoneistalkingaboutleverage**TheinclusionofdeferredincometaxesinlongtermdebtisdebatableRatios*GilletteRatioCalculationsDuPontleverageratioAssetsEquityDebttoequityratioLongtermdebt**EquityDebttototalcapitalordebttototalassetsratio(p),,==(p),,==(p)PageNumberinAnnualReport,,=TotalliabilitiesDebtequityTotalliabilitiesAssets=GilletteExerciseLiquidityandCoverageRatiosGilletteExerciseLiquidityandCoverageRatiosRatiosGilletteRatioCalculationsCurrentratioCurrentassetsCurrentliabilitiesQuickratio(acidtest)CashmarketablesecuritiesreceivablesCurrentliabilitiesInterestcoverageratioEarningsbeforeinterestandtaxes*InterestexpenseFixedchargecoverageEarningsbeforeinterestandtaxes*Allessentialpayments(includingleasepayments)Liquidity:Coverage:,,==(p),,==(p),==(p),()==(p,p)PageNumberinAnnualReport*”Otherchargesnet”undernonoperatingchargeshavebeenincludedherebecausetheyappeartoberecurringandthuswillimpactthecompany’sabilitytomakeitsinterestpaymentsAgendaAgendaUsingratiosTypesofkeyratiosprofitabilityturnoverleverageliquiditycoverageReturnonEquityRatioexercisesForecastingexerciseAbbreviationsKeytakeawaysForecastingExerciseDataForecastingExerciseData*FinancialstatementshavebeenconstructedforthisexercisebasedinpartonTheGilletteCompany’sAnnualReportSincethedatahavebeenchangedsignificantly,youshouldnotusethemtoanalyzeGillette’sfinancialperformanceForthisexercise,assumethathistoricaldataisagoodindicatoroffinancials

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