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首页 贝恩咨询分析方法-ProfitPools1

贝恩咨询分析方法-ProfitPools1.ppt

贝恩咨询分析方法-ProfitPools1

小饼的炊饼
2011-03-21 0人阅读 举报 0 0 暂无简介

简介:本文档为《贝恩咨询分析方法-ProfitPools1ppt》,可适用于战略管理领域

Author:DanaPeckReviewer:MichaelCollinsProfitPoolsDecemberCopyright©BainCompany,IncAgendaAgendaProfitPoolsConceptApplicationsProfitPoolStepsClientExampleKeyTakeawaysWhatareProfitPoolsWhatareProfitPoolsProfitpoolsarethetotalprofitsearnedinanindustryatallpointsalongtheindustry’svaluechainPatternofprofitconcentrationinanindustryisverydifferentfromthepatternofrevenueconcentration(seeexample)Forexample,profitsandrevenuesintheautomotiveindustrycanbedividedamongmanyvaluechainactivitiesvehiclemanufacturing,newandusedcarsales,gasolineretailing,insurance,aftersalesserviceandparts,andleasefinancingalthoughcarmanufacturinganddealersaccountforalmostofindustryrevenueautoleasingandfinancingarebyfarthemostprofitablebusinessesProfitpoolsanswerthequestion:“Whereandhowismoneybeingmade”Source:ProfitPools:AFreshLookatStrategy(MayJune):OritGadieshandJamesLGilbertWhatisProfitWhatisProfitAccountingprofitrepresentscompany’searningsasformallyreportedmostcommonlyusedasthebasicprofitmeasureexamplesincludenetincomeorearningspersharecalculationsReturnoninvestmentrepresentscompany’searningsaftertakingintoaccountthecostofcapitalinvestedinthebusinessTwocommonlyusedmeasuresinclude:ROC,accountingbasedReturnonCapital(bookvalue)ROIC,accountingbasedReturnonInvestedCapital(bookvalue)Cashflowcontributioncompany’searningsbeforetakingfixedassetandcapitalcostsintoaccount(egEBITDA)representstheamountofcashleftfromasaleaftersubtractingthevariablecostsassociatedwiththatsaleusedasabasisfordecisionmakinginmature,highfixedcostandcyclicalindustriesProfitcanbedefinedinoneofthreeways:BeawareofdifferencesinaccountingstandardswhenevaluatingcompanieswithprofitsspanningdifferentindustriesSource:HowtoMapYourIndustry’sProfitPool(MayJune)OritGadieshandJamesLGilbertRevenuevsProfitSplitRevenuevsProfitSplitTruckFinancePartsandServiceBodyManufacturingandTruckAssemblyChassisManufacturingandSalesTruckFinancePartsandServiceBodyManufacturingandTruckAssemblyChassisManufacturingandSalesRevenueSplitbyActivityProfitSplitbyActivity$,MM$MMPercentofTotalSource:PBIRProfileoftheUSTruckBodyIndustryRLPolkRegistrationDatabaseLiteratureSearchTEMFinancialsPriorBainPLPanalysis()BainestimatesThepatternofprofitconcentrationinthetruckmanufacturingindustryisverydifferentfromthepatternofrevenueconcentrationTruckManufacturingBusinessExampleWhyUseProfitPoolsWhyUseProfitPoolsOfferaviewoftheunderlyingindustrystructureHelpillustratetheeconomicandcompetitiveforcesdrivingtheindustry’sprofitdistributionOfferadifferentperspectiveonanindustryIllustraterelationshipbetweenprofitandrevenuesHighlightspotentialwatchouts(chokepointsinthevaluechain)whichcaninfluencetheprofitflowinanindustryIllustratetheCurrentStateoftheIndustryProvideaCompetitiveAdvantagetoYourClientHelptoDevelopInnovativeStrategiesHelpcompaniesseewhattheirrivalsdon’tseeFosterthepotentialtodictatethetermsofcompetitionwithintheindustryKeepcompaniesabreastofchangesinrapidlychanging(turbulent)industriesalertpotentialshiftsinprofitdistributionalongthevaluechainillustratepotentialchangeinprofitsourcesfromnewentrantsHelpguideimportantdecisionsaboutacompany’soperationandstrategyEncouragerethinkingolddecisionsandpursuingcounterintuitiveinitiativestocreateandcontrolprofitpoolsReducethepossibilityofblindspotsinacompany’sstrategicvisionreducepotentialtooverlookattractiveprofitbuildingopportunitieslessonpotentialtobecometrappedinareasofweakfadingprofitabilityExampleapplicationsCompaniesthatrecognizethevariabilityofprofitabilityandcanexploitthedeepestpoolswillearnsuperiorreturnsSource:ProfitPools:AFreshLookatStrategy(MayJune):OritGadieshandJamesLGilbertHowProfitPoolsIllustratetheStateoftheIndustryHowProfitPoolsIllustratetheStateoftheIndustryThevaryingconcentrationsofprofitalongthevaluechain(knownastheshapeoftheprofitpool)reflectthecompetitivedynamicsofabusinessprofitconcentrationsresultfromtheactionsandinteractionsofcompaniesandcustomersprofitpoolsforminareaswherebarrierstocompetitionexistprofitpoolsexistinareasthathavebeenoverlookedbycompetitorsEverymarkethasanunevendistributionofprofitbetweenproductcategories,customergroups,geographicregionsandordistributionchannelsProfitpoolsarenotstagnantaspowershiftsamongtheplayersinanindustry(competitors,suppliers,andcustomers),thestructureoftheprofitpoolchangesTherearemanydifferentsourcesofprofitinanybusinessProfitpoolsprovideameanstoevaluatethecompetitivedynamicsofanindustrySource:ProfitPools:AFreshLookatStrategy(MayJune):OritGadieshandJamesLGilbertProfitPoolWatchouts(ComputerIndustryExample)ProfitPoolWatchouts(ComputerIndustryExample)Examples:Beawareof“chokepoints”particularbusinessactivitiesthatcontroltheflowofprofitsthroughoutanindustryImpact:ControlofachokepointcaninfluencethedistributionofprofitsamongcompetitorsandmoredistantvaluechainparticipantsIntel’sdominanceofmicroprocessorsEstablishmentofanindustrywidestandardthatallcompaniesmustnowobeyMicrosoft’sdominanceofWindowsConsolidationofcontroloverthecustomerinterface*includesoperatingsystemandapplicationsoftwareSource:ProfitPools:AFreshLookatStrategy(MayJune):OritGadieshandJamesLGilbertMicroprocessorsOtherComponentsPersonalComputersSoftware*PeripheralsServicesProfitPoolWatchouts(ComputerIndustryExampleCon)ProfitPoolWatchouts(ComputerIndustryExampleCon)MicroprocessorsOtherComponentsPersonalComputersSoftwarePeripheralsServicesOperatingMarginShareofIndustryRevenue*includesoperatingsystemandapplicationsoftwareSource:ProfitPools:AFreshLookatStrategy(MayJune):OritGadieshandJamesLGilbertAnalyzingtheprofitpoolhasenabledDelltobeprofitableintheleastprofitablepersonalcomputerssegment(seeexample)Althoughchokepointsexistinthecomputerindustry,itisstillpossibleforcompaniestocreateandleveragenewprofitpoolswithinthisindustryPCIndustryProfitPoolUSAutoIndustryExampleUSAutoIndustryExampleOperatingMarginTheautomotiveindustryencompassesmanyvaluechainactivitiesThemostprofitableareasofthecarbusinessarenottheonesthatgeneratethebiggestrevenuesAutomanufacturingNewcardealersUsedcardealersAutoloansLeasingGasolineAutoinsuranceServicerepairAftermarketpartsAutorentalShareofIndustryRevenueKeyQuestionstoHelpDevelopInnovativeStrategiesKeyQuestionstoHelpDevelopInnovativeStrategiesWhyhaveprofitpoolsformedwheretheyhaveAretheforcesthatcreatedthosepoolslikelytochangeWillnew,moreprofitablebusinessmodelsemergeHowdosomeprofitsourcesexertinfluenceoverothersandshapecompetitionHowdowegainadisproportionateshareofindustryprofitsBuildinganunderstandingofprofitpoolsputsstrategicthinkingonafirmfootingandpromptsthefollowingquestions:Source:ProfitPools:AFreshLookatStrategy(MayJune):OritGadieshandJamesLGilbertAgendaAgendaProfitPoolsConceptApplicationsProfitPoolStepsClientExampleKeyTakeawaysApplications(of)Applications(of)AnalyzingprofitpoolsallowedUHaultoidentifyalargeuntappedsourceofprofitinthelowmargintruckrentalbusinessseizedthefirstmoveradvantageandenteredaccessorybusinessatalowcostreducedprices(andprofits)incoretruckrentalbusinesstoattractcustomersforhighermarginaccessorybusinessInanticipationofapotentialreconfigurationoftheprofitpoolfrompharmacybenefitmanagers(PBM),MerckandothersverticallyintegratedthevaluechainandacquiredPBMsinsulatedthemselvesfromnewentrantsandprotectedtheirexistingsourcesofprofitsgainedgreateraccesstopatientinformationincreasedthelikelihoodthatthepoolwouldevolveinabeneficialratherthandestructivewayCompaniescanusetheirunderstandingofprofitpoolsindifferentways:IdentifyNewSourcesofProfitChartAcquisitionandExpansionStrategiesExamplesSource:ProfitPools:AFreshLookatStrategy(MayJune):OritGadieshandJamesLGilbertApplications(of)Applications(of)DellComputerCorputilizestheprofitpoolapproachtoevaluatewhichcustomerstopursueandwhichchannelstousedirectsalesapproachallowsDelltokeepaportionofdealer’sprofitsforitselfandtosharetherestwithcustomersthroughlowerpricesregularresegmentationofcustomerbaseenablesthemtoidentifythemostprofitablecustomersandreactquicklytonewsourcesofprofitAfterrecognizingthattheindustry’sprofitpoolwasdrivenbythepremiumbeersegments,AnheuserBushrefocusedtheirstrategytoexpandtheirshareofthepremiumsegmentgaineddominanceofthepremiumsegmentthroughincreasedmarketingofpremiumbrandsandbymanagingthepricedifferentialsbetweenpremiumanddiscountbrandsverticalintegrationintocanproductionraisedcompetitivebarriersaroundthepoolbycuttingmanufacturinganddistributioncostDevelopDistributionStrategyGuidePricing,ProductandOperatingDecisionsThecompanythatseeswhatothersdonotwillbebestpreparedtocaptureadisproportionateshareofindustryprofitsSource:ProfitPools:AFreshLookatStrategy(MayJune):OritGadieshandJamesLGilbertAgendaAgendaProfitPoolsConceptApplicationsProfitPoolStepsClientExampleKeyTakeawaysMappingaProfitPoolMappingaProfitPoolMappingaprofitpoolinvolvesfourstepsDefinethePoolDeterminetheSizeofthePoolEstimatetheDistributionofProfitsReconciletheEstimatesStep:Step:Step:Step:Source:HowtoMapYourIndustry’sProfitPool(MayJune)OritGadieshandJamesLGilbertGuidelines(DefiningthePool)Guidelines(DefiningthePool)DefiningthepoolinvolvesidentifyingvaluechainactivitiesrelevanttothebusinessTakeabroadviewofthevaluechainlookbeyondtraditionalindustrydefinitionsExaminetheindustryfromperspectivesclientcompetitorscustomersTalktoindustryplayersandanalysistouncoverneworemergingbusinessmodelsDon’tdisaggregateactivitiesmorethannecessaryConsiderparallelsfromotherindustriesarethereactivitiesthatcouldsubstituteforactivitiesinthisindustryThewayyoudefineyourprofitpoolisunlikelytocoincidewithanytraditionalindustrydefinitionSource:HowtoMapYourIndustry’sProfitPool(MayJune)OritGadieshandJamesLGilbertGuidelines(DeterminingtheSizeofthePool)Guidelines(DeterminingtheSizeofthePool)Determiningthesizeofthepoolinvolvesdevelopingarough,butaccuratebaselineestimatebasedontheavailabledataTaketheeasiestanalyticalroutesavailableFocusonthelargestcomponentsfirstlargecompaniesstartwiththebiggestplayerswhoaccountforalargeportionoftheindustry’sprofitsgaugetheprofitsofthesmallerplayersbyadjustingtheleader’smarginstoaccountforthesmallerplayer’scompetitiveadvantagesordisadvantagesaddtheprofitstogetherhighvolumeproductsConsiderbuildingestimatesusingtwodifferentmethodologies(egcompanylevelvsproductlevel)soyoucancompareanswerstoseeifyouareintheballparkrangeSource:HowtoMapYourIndustry’sProfitPool(MayJune)OritGadieshandJamesLGilbertGuidelines(EstimatingtheDistributionofProfits)Guidelines(EstimatingtheDistributionofProfits)EstimatingtheprofitsforeachvaluechaininvolvescreativethinkingGowherethedatais(egproducts,customers,channels,companies,orregions,etc)useproxiesifrelevantdataisunavailablePrioritizefocuslookatclienteconomics,thenlargepureplayers,largemixedplayers,thenasampleofsmallerplayersusetheruleinmostcasesofthecompaniesconstituteoftherevenuesShiftbetweenaggregationanddisaggregationinanalysisaggregationsuseinindustrieswheremostoftheplayersfocusononevaluechainactivity“Pureplayers”disaggregationyouwillneedtodisaggregatecompany’sfinancialdataiftheindustry’splayersareverticallyintegrated“mixedplayers”Source:HowtoMapYourIndustry’sProfitPool(MayJune)OritGadieshandJamesLGilbertGuidelines(ReconcilingtheEstimates)Guidelines(ReconcilingtheEstimates)DevelopingfinalestimatesofactivityandtotalprofitscanbeaniterativeprocessComparetheestimateoftotalprofitpools(topdownapproach)withestimatescalculatedforeachvaluechainactivity(bottomsupapproach)Checkassumptionsandcalculationsifthenumbersdon’taddupCollectadditionaldataifnecessaryResolveinconsistenciesSource:HowtoMapYourIndustry’sProfitPool(MayJune)OritGadieshandJamesLGilbertAgendaAgendaProfitPoolsConceptApplicationsProfitPoolStepsClientExampleKeyTakeawaysSevereServiceValueChain(DefiningthePool)SevereServiceValueChain(DefiningthePool)TruckManufacturingBusinessExampleActivities:PerformedBy:ProvidepartsfortruckchassisandbodyPerformpreventativeandemergencyserviceontruckchassisandbodyBuildtruckbodytocustomerspecsPreparebodyforandmanageassemblyprocessSellbodytocustomerDeliverintegratedunittocustomerOfferfundsasloansfortruckpurchaseArrangeloanandleasetransactionsSellchassistotakeorderfromcustomerManageconnectionofchassisandTEM*BuildtruckchassisaccordingtocustomerspecsCollectcomponentsfrommanufacturersChassismanufacturerChassisdealerIndependentgarageorpartsstoreTEMChassisdealerChassismanufacturerTEMChassisdealerChassismanufacturerTEMChassismanufacturerNotes:*TruckEquipmentManufacturersThefirststepwastodefinethepoolbyidentifyingthevaluechainactivitiesrelevanttothebusinessSevereServiceVehicleProfitPool(DeterminingtheSizeofthePool)SevereServiceVehicleProfitPool(DeterminingtheSizeofthePool)OtherFreightlinerNavistarPeterbiltSterlingMack~$MMEstimatedPercentofTotalProfitPoolsSource:BainanalysisEstimatedprofitsfromtopcompaniesbasedonKsandannualreportsPerformedanalysistodeterminetotalprofitpoolassumedofthecompaniesconstitutedoftheprofitsestimatedprofitsofremainingsmallercompaniesRealitycheckedestimateswithroughindustrycalculationsEstimatedtotalprofitpoolaround$$MMbasedon:$BindustryrevenuesassumedaveragegrossmarginsofMethodologyTruckManufacturingBusinessExampleAroughestimateofthetotalprofitpoolwasbuiltusingoverallprofitestimatesfromthetopcompetitorsBodyCompanyMargins(DeterminingtheDistributionofProfitsforanActivitywithinaValueChain)BodyCompanyMargins(DeterminingtheDistributionofProfitsforanActivitywithinaValueChain)Note:OperatingMarginusedasthemeasureofprofitabilitySource:CompanyFinancialsAnalystsReportsCompanyInterviewsTotalIndustryMcNeilusHeilLeachKnapheideOmahaVactorOttawaAdvanceRestofIndustryOperatingMarginsforBodyCompaniesProfitestimatesweregeneratedforeachactivitybasedontheoperatingmarginsofthetopindustryplayersTruckManufacturingBusinessExampleExampleActivity:BodyManufacturingSevereServiceVehicleProfitPool(ReconcilingtheEstimates)SevereServiceVehicleProfitPool(ReconcilingtheEstimates)OtherFreightlinerNavistarPeterbiltSterlingMackTruckFinanceBodyManufacturingandTruckAssemblyPartsandServiceChassisManufacturingandSalesTopDownBottomsUp~$$MM$MMEstimatedPercentofTotalProfitPoolsSource:BainanalysisChassisPartsServicesBodyManufacturingFinancetherangeapproximatedinthetopdownapproachFinalestimatesforeachvaluechainactivityiswithintherangeofouroriginaltotalprofitpoolestimateTruckManufacturingBusinessExampleTotalprofitestimatesfromthetopdownapproachwerecomparedtothosefromthebottomsupapproachSevereServiceVehicleProfitMap()SevereServiceVehicleProfitMap()OtherGeneralMotorsVolvoKenworthFreightlinerNavistarPeterbiltSterlingMackChassisDealersOtherOttawaAdvanceMixerVactorOmahaStahlLeachKnapheideMcNeilusHeilChassisDealersChassisManufacturersChassisDealersChassisManufacturingChassisSalesBodyManufacturing,SalesandAssemblyTruckFinancePartsService$MM$MM$MM$MM$MM$MMTotal EBIT=$MMPercentofTotalContributioninEachActivityOncetheestimateswerereconciled,thefinalprofitmapenabledtheclienttoseewhichsegmentswerethemostprofitableandwhichcontrolledthemajorityofprofitpoolEstimatedMargin:TruckManufacturingBusinessExampleSource:PBIRProfileoftheUSTruckBodyIndustryRLPolkRegistrationDatabaseLiteratureSearchTEMFinancialsPriorBainPLPanalysis()BainestimatesProfitPoolSummaryProfitPoolSummaryDealerownershipwouldcreateaccesstohighmarginactivitiesChassismanufacturingandaftermarketpartsaremostprofitableactivitiesHighfragmentationandlowprofitabilitymakebodymanufacturingunattractiveBodyjointventuresattractiveifleadtogreaterchassisoraftermarketshareDealerscontrolaccesstohighmarginfinanceandpartsandserviceForwardintegrationintobodieshasnotoccurredClientshouldfocusongainingshareinchassismanufacturingandorcapturingagreaterpercentageoftruckfinanceandpartsandserviceTheprofitmaphelpedtheclientevaluatepotentialmarketsandtheirforwardintegrationstrategyTruckManufacturingBusinessExampleAgendaAgendaProfitPoolsConceptApplicationsProfitPoolStepsClientExampleKeyTakeawaysKeyTakeaways(of)KeyTakeaways(of)Profitpoolsarethetotalprofitsearnedinanindustryatallpointsalongtheindustry’svaluechainCompaniesthatrecognizethevariabilityofprofitabilityandcanexploitthedeepestpoolswillearnsuperiorreturnsBuildinganunderstandingofprofitpoolsputsstrategicthinkingonfirmfootingillustratesthecurrentstateoftheindustryprovidesacompetitiveadvantagetotheclienthelpsdevelopinnovativestrategiesTherearemanydifferentsourcesofprofitinanybusinessControlofachokepointscaninfluencethedistributionofprofitsamongcompetitorsandmoredistantvaluechainparticipantsProfitPoolsConceptKeyTakeaways(of)KeyTakeaways(of)ProfitPoolStepsKeySuccessFactorsKeysuccessfactorsinclude:takingabroadviewofthevaluechain,examiningtheindustryfromdifferentperspectives,buildingestimatesfrommultipleperspectives,prioritizingfocustolookatthelargestandeasiestcomponentsfirst,lookingatrelevantinternalandexternalcomparables,gatheringandanalyzingdata,andcreativethinkingTherearefourstepsindevelopingaprofitmap:DefinethepoolDeterminethesizeofthepoolEstimatethedistributionofprofitsReconciletheestimatesTakeawaySlidesTakeawaySlidesProfi

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贝恩咨询分析方法-ProfitPools1

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