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包容性增长:观念与战略IMF:关注包容性增长是中东危机的深刻教训 包容性增长:观念与战略 导读[阳民管理咨询机构周阳敏]:本书(小册子)是印度包容性增长的发展纲要,是目前最好的包容性增长的读本。 Inclusive Growth:Vision and Strategy INTRODUCTION 1.1. India has entered the Eleventh Plan period with an impressive record of economic growth. After a lacklustre performanc...

包容性增长:观念与战略
IMF:关注包容性增长是中东危机的深刻教训 包容性增长:观念与战略 导读[阳民管理咨询机构周阳敏]:本书(小册子)是印度包容性增长的发展纲要,是目前最好的包容性增长的读本。 Inclusive Growth:Vision and Strategy INTRODUCTION 1.1. India has entered the Eleventh Plan period with an impressive record of economic growth. After a lacklustre performance in the Ninth Plan period (1997–98 to 2001– 02), when gross domestic product (GDP) grew at only 5.5% per annum, the economy accelerated in the Tenth Plan period (2002–03 to 2006–07) to record an average growth of 7.7%, the highest in any Plan period so far. Besides, there was acceleration even within the Tenth Plan period and the growth rate in the last four years of the Plan has averaged 8.7%, making India one of the fastest growing economies in the world. 1.2. It can be argued that there is an element of cyclicality in the high growth observed in the past four years since these were also years of a global upswing. However, India’s growth performance goes beyond mere cyclicality. It is underpinned by a number of factors which are real sources of strength and will serve us well in the years ahead. Savings and investment rates have increased significantly. The industrial sector has responded well to economic reforms and has shown that it is capable of competing in the global economy. Perceptions about India among global investors are very favourable. These developments suggest that the economy is now at a point when it can achieve sustained economic expansion that has the potential to bring significant improvement in the lives of our people. If this momentum can be accelerated in the years ahead, it will put India on the path to becoming one of the key players in the world economy over the next two decades. 1.3. These positive factors notwithstanding, a major weakness in the economy is that the growth is not perceived as being sufficiently inclusive for many groups, especially Scheduled Castes (SCs), Scheduled Tribes (STs), and minorities. Gender inequality also remains a pervasive problem and some of the structural changes taking place have an adverse effect on women. The lack of inclusiveness is borne out by data on several dimensions of performance. 1.4. The percentage of the population below the official poverty line has come down from 36% in 1993–94 to 28% in 2004–05. However, not only is this still high, the rate of decline in poverty has not accelerated along with the growth in GDP, and the incidence of poverty among certain marginalized groups, for example the STs, has hardly declined at all. Because population has also grown, the absolute number of poor people has declined only marginally from 320 million in 1993–94 to 302 million in 2004–05. This performance is all the more disappointing since the poverty line on which the estimate of the poor is based is the same as it was in 1973–74 when per capita incomes were much lower. Other indicators of deprivation suggest that the proportion of the population deprived of a minimum level of living is much higher. For example, National Family Health Survey-3 (NFHS-3) shows that almost 46% of the children in the 0 to 3 years’ age group suffered from malnutrition in 2005–06, and what is even more disturbing is that the estimate shows almost no decline from the level of 47% reported in 1998 by NFHS-2. 1.5. Indicators of human development such as literacy and education, and maternal and infant mortality rates, show steady improvement, but they also suggest that the progress is slow and we continue to lag behind several other Asian countries. While the literacy rate has gone up from 18.3% in 1951 to 64.8% in 2001, the number of illiterate persons still exceeds 304 million, making India the country with the highest number of illiterate persons in the world. Life expectancy at birth has increased from approximately 32 years for both males and females in 1951 to 63.9 years for males and 66.9 years for females in 2001–06. Yet this is well below the life expectancy of around 80 years in industrialized countries and 72 years in China. Although Indian women now have higher life expectancy than Indian men, as is the case in industrialized countries, India also has an adverse sex ratio with only 933 women per 1000 men. More disturbing, the child sex ratio (ages 0–6) has declined sharply from 962 in 1981 to 927 in 2001. India’s maternal and infant mortality rates are much higher than those of countries in East Asia, showing poor access to essential health care services. 1.6. The composition of growth in recent years has also presented some problems. Agriculture has grown very slowly from the Ninth Plan onwards and this has widened the rural–urban divide and also contributed to the severe distress in rural areas in some regions. Although there is an upturn in agricultural growth after 2004, it is too early to be complacent. Total employment in the economy has improved in recent years, but the labour force has grown even faster, leading to an increase in the unemployment rate. Permanent employment in the organized sector has decreased, although organized sector firms may be increasing their informal employment. Also, economic growth across regions has not been balanced, with some of the most backward areas yet to experience any significant growth. The delivery of essential social services at the grass roots level is also poor and this is a major causative factor in unequal development. Much higher levels of human development can be achieved even with the given structure of the economy, if only the delivery system is improved. 1.7. These features suggest that while there are significant economic achievements that India can celebrate in its 60th year of Independence, it is still far from redeeming the pledge which Pandit Jawaharlal Nehru made on the eve of Independence: ‘[…] for ending of poverty, ignorance, disease and inequality of opportunity’. The Eleventh Plan provides an opportunity to act decisively to consolidate the gains that have been made in the Tenth Plan and also to correct the deficiencies that have been observed. VISION FOR THE ELEVENTH PLAN 1.8. The central vision of the Eleventh Plan is to build on our strengths to trigger a development process which ensures broad-based improvement in the quality of life of the people, especially the poor, SCs/STs, other backward castes (OBCs), minorities and women. The National Development Council (NDC), in approving the Approach to the Eleventh Plan, endorsed a target of 9% GDP growth for the country as a whole. This growth is to be achieved in an environment in which the economy is much more integrated into the global economy, an integration that has yielded many benefits but also poses many challenges. If this is achieved, it would mean that per capita GDP would grow at about 7.6% per year to double in less than ten years. However the target is not just faster growth but also inclusive growth, that is, a growth process which yields broad-based benefits and ensures equality of opportunity for all. 1.9. This broad vision of the Eleventh Plan includes several inter-related components: rapid growth that reduces poverty and creates employment opportunities, access to essential services in health and education especially for the poor, equality of opportunity, empowerment through education and skill development, employment opportunities underpinned by the National Rural Employment Guarantee, environmental sustainability, recognition of women’s agency and good governance. RAPID GROWTH AND POVERTY REDUCTION 1.10. The persistence of poverty on the scale at which it still exists is not acceptable. A decisive reduction in poverty and an expansion in economic opportunities for all sections of the population should therefore be a crucial element of the vision for the Eleventh Plan. Rapid growth of the economy is an essential requirement to achieve this outcome since it is an instrument for achieving a steady increase in employment and incomes for large numbers of our people. 1.11. Growth in the Eleventh Plan should be better balanced to rapidly create jobs in the industrial and services sectors. This is necessary if a significant portion of the labour force is to shift out of agriculture, where it is currently engaged in low productivity employment, into a non-agricultural activity that can provide higher real incomes per head. This must be accompanied by efforts to improve the income-earning opportunities of those who remain in agriculture by raising land productivity. This process would also lead to higher farm incomes and a rise in real wages of agricultural labour whose bargaining power will improve as surplus labour is shifted out of this sector. 1.12. Rapid growth in the economy at large, and especially in the employment generating sectors such as medium and small industry and services, needs to be supplemented by targeted livelihood support programmes aimed at increasing productivity and incomes of the poor in several low income occupations which will continue as important sources of employment for quite some time. Special programmes aimed at target groups such as small and micro enterprises, weavers, artisans, craftsmen, etc. will therefore remain important in the Eleventh Plan period. Considerable experience has been gained over the years in the management of these programmes. This experience must be brought to bear in redesigning the programmes in the Eleventh Plan to make them more effective in achieving their stated objectives. THE EMPLOYMENT CHALLENGE 1.13. The ability to generate an adequate number of productive employment opportunities will be a major factor on which the inclusiveness of growth will be judged. India is currently at a stage of ‘demographic transition’ where population growth is slowing down but the population of young people entering the labour force continues to expand. This means that a working person will have fewer dependents, children or parents. The dependency ratio (ratio of dependent to working age population) declined from 0.8 in 1991 to 0.73 in 2001 and is expected to decline further to 0.59 by 2011. If the workforce is gainfully employed, a lower dependency ratio means a higher rate of savings which, in turn, can raise the growth rate. This young demographic profile places India favourably in terms of manpower availability and could be a major advantage in an environment where investment is expanding in India and the industrial world is ageing. 1.14. It is, however, essential to produce a growth process in which employment would be available not only for new entrants to the labour force but also in the non-agricultural sector for workers leaving agriculture. Over 1999–2000 to 2004–05, urban employment has grown at a faster rate than population. However, since more urban women have joined the workforce, the unemployment rate has increased over these years. 1.15. Rapid growth focused on labour-intensive industries and small and middle enterprises will create employment opportunities in the manufacturing and services sectors. The ability to create jobs will be enhanced by greater labour flexibility which may require some changes in labour laws. This is a controversial issue on which it is difficult to reach a consensus but the weight of evidence suggests that while outright hire and fire approaches may not be desirable, there is room for creating greater flexibility, short of this position. 1.16. The ability to sustain a labour-intensive growth process depends crucially upon the expansion of skill capabilities in the labour force. Specific programmes for development of skills at all levels will be a part of the Eleventh Plan. ACCESS TO ESSENTIAL SERVICES 1.17. A person is poor because her endowments of capital, land, labour and skills are meagre, and also because her access to public goods and services and natural resources is limited. Often, a poor person is trapped in the prison of illiteracy. Disease and ill-health prevent her from getting the most out of the one asset she has, her labour. Without training and skills she cannot aspire to do a better job. Without an all-weather road that connects her habitation to the nearest market, she cannot get a fair price for her produce. Without electricity and access to credit, her ability to increase productivity of land or of artisan activity is limited. Without the sewers and drains, water works and water mains that service her town; without the policing that should protect her life and limb, property (however meagre), person and dignity as an equal citizen of India; she cannot function effectively. Thus, while in the short run, access to basic facilities such as health, education, clean drinking water, etc. impacts directly on welfare, in the longer run, it determines economic opportunities for the future. Without access to these services one cannot be considered to have equality of opportunity. 1.18. Since access to these services for the majority of the population depends not only upon their income levels but upon the delivery of these services through publicly funded systems, the Eleventh Plan’s vision of poverty reduction includes major expansion in the supply of these services. The resources needed to create the infrastructure necessary for delivering these services to the poor are large. Fortunately, the rapid growth being targeted for the Eleventh Plan will facilitate the ability to undertake these programmes, both by way of higher tax revenues resulting from higher growth and a larger borrowing capability even while adhering to fiscal deficit targets expressed as a percentage of GDP. These additional resources can be devoted to Plan expenditure aimed at ensuring effective delivery of essential services. SOCIAL JUSTICE AND EMPOWERMENT 1.19. The vision of inclusiveness must go beyond the traditional objective of poverty alleviation to encompass equality of opportunity, as well as economic and social mobility for all sections of society, with affirmative action for SCs, STs, OBCs, minorities and women. There must be equality of opportunity to all with freedom and dignity, and without social or political obstacles. This must be accompanied by an improvement in the opportunities for economic and social advancement. In particular, individuals belonging to disadvantaged groups should be provided special opportunities to develop their skills and participate in the growth process. 1.20. This outcome can only be ensured if there is a degree of empowerment that creates a true feeling of participation so necessary in a democratic polity. Empowerment of disadvantaged and hitherto marginalized groups is therefore an essential part of any vision of inclusive growth. India’s democratic polity, with the establishment of the third layer of democracy at the Panchayati Raj Institution (PRI) level, provides opportunities for empowerment and participation of all groups with reservations for SCs, STs, and women. These institutions should be made more effective through greater delegation of power and responsibility to the local level. ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY 1.21. The vision of the Eleventh Plan must also include a clear commitment to pursue a development process which is environmentally sustainable. Natural resources such as water and land are limited and their per capita availability is actually diminishing because of rising population and also because of irrational exploitation of common pool resources. The Eleventh Plan must be based on a strategy that not only preserves and maintains natural resources, but also provides equitable access to those who do not have such access at present. Unless environment protection is brought to the centre stage of policy formulation, what is perceived as development may actually lead to a deteriorating quality of life. This seems to be happening all around, in the poor and generally worsening quality of air in cities and even villages; in the increasingly polluted waters of our lakes and rivers, which are not fit for even bathing, let alone drinking; in the loss of biodiversity, and in the shrinking habitats of wild animals. This degradation of natural resources reduces the well-being of people, and the poor and women suffer more, as they depend much more on natural common property resources for fuel and water, and also have fewer resources to take defensive actions. 1.22. The danger to environment is caused by activities worldwide. The growing evidence on climate change shows that Green House Gas (GHG) emissions, resulting from the cumulative action of all countries, will, if not effectively contained, produce changes in climate which would have very severe effects in the future. India will be seriously affected by such climate change in the form of receding Himalayan glaciers, a variably different hydrological cycle than at present, greater water scarcity and higher temperatures which would have an adverse impact on agricultural production with the presently known technologies. A rise in the sea level, leading to coastal submergence would cause large-scale displacement of people. 1.23. We must certainly begin to consider what steps we need to take to adapt to these changes and to mitigate the damage to climate. However, an effective strategy requires international co-operation to evolve forms of burden sharing for mitigation as well as adaptation that are fair and equitable across nations. We have to address these challenges in the years ahead. GENDER EQUITY 1.24. For the first time in the history of Indian planning there is an attempt to move beyond empowerment and recognize women as agents of sustained socio-economic growth and change. The Eleventh Five Year Plan acknowledges women’s agencies and tries to ensure that their needs, rights and contribution are reflected in every section of the Plan document. Gender is, therefore, a cross cutting theme; it is not confined to a single chapter on Women and Children. The vision is to develop an integrated approach which would eventually dispense the need for a separate chapter. 1.25. While endeavoring to guarantee the rights and entitlements of all women, the Eleventh Plan recognizes that women are not a homogenous category. Their situations, and consequently requirements, differ based on their locations within various castes, communities, religions, geographic and development zones and the effort during the Eleventh Plan is to cater to all these differential and specific requirements. GOVERNANCE 1.26. Finally, the vision for the Eleventh Plan must include an improvement in governance. Over the years, the governments at the Centre and the States have launched a large number of initiatives at substantial public expense to achieve the objectives of growth with poverty alleviation and inclusiveness. Experience suggests that many of these initiatives have floundered because of poor design, insufficient accountability and also corruption at various levels. Increasingly, there is demand for effective implementation without which expanded government intervention will be infructuous. 1.27. The strategy for the Eleventh Plan must therefore aim at bringing about major improvements in governance which would make government-funded programmes in critical areas more effective and efficient. The best possible way of achieving this objective may be by involving communities in both the design and implementation of such programmes, although such involvement may vary from sector to sector. Experience shows that Civil Society Organizations (CSOs) can work with PRIs to improve the effectiveness of these programmes. For achieving the vision of the Eleventh Plan, it is extremely important to experiment with programme design to give more flexibility to decision making at the local level. 1.28. It is especially important to improve evaluation of the effectiveness of how government programmes work and to inject a commitment to change their designs in the light of the experience gained. Evaluation must be based on proper benchmarks and be scientificall
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