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首页 桥水资本 达里奥的原则.pdf

桥水资本 达里奥的原则.pdf

桥水资本 达里奥的原则.pdf

上传者: 打响指的石头 2017-03-02 评分1 评论0 下载231 收藏9 阅读量626 暂无简介 简介 举报

简介:本文档为《桥水资本 达里奥的原则pdf》,可适用于经济金融领域,主题内容包含EconomicPrinciplsIHowthEconomicMachinWorksIIDbtCycls:LragingsDlragingsa)An符等。

EconomicPrinciplsIHowthEconomicMachinWorksIIDbtCycls:LragingsDlragingsa)AnInDpthLookatDlragingsb)USDlragingsTimlinofEntsc)WimarRpublicDlragingsTimlinofEntsIIIProductiityandStructuralRform:WhyCountrisSuccdFail,andWhatShouldBDonSoFailingCountrisSuccdPart:ThFormulaforEconomicSuccssPart:EconomicHalthIndicsbyCountry,andthPrognossthatThyImplyPart:ThRissandDclinsofEconomisOrthLastYarsDraftVrsioncopyRayDalioHowthEconomicMachinWorksThconomyislikamachinAtthmostfundamntalllitisarlatilysimplmachinButmanypopldonrsquotundrstanditndashorthydonrsquotagronhowitworksndashandthishasldtoalotofndlssconomicsuffringIfladpsnsofrsp<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>ibilitytosharmysimplbutpracticalconomictmplat,andwrotthispictodscribhowIbliitworksMydscriptionofhowthconomyworksisdiffrntfrommostconomists#Ithasworkdbttr,allowingmtoanticipatthgratdlragingsandmarktchangsthatmostothrsorlookdIblithatisbcausitismorpracticalSincIcrtainlydonotwantyoutoblindlybliinmydscriptionofhowthconomicmachinworks,Ihalaiditoutclarlysothatyoucthpricofanygood,sricorfinancialasstqualsthtotalamountspntbybuyrs(total$)diiddbythtotalquantitysoldbysllrs(totalQ),inordrtoundrstandorforcastthpricofanythingyoujustndtoforcasttotal$andtotalQWhilinanymarktthrarlotsofbuyrsandsllrs,andthsbuyrsandsllrshadiffrntmotiati<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>,thmotiati<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>ofthmostimportantbuyrsarusuallyprttyundrstandablandaddingthmuptoundrstandthconomyisnrsquotallthattoughifonbuildsfromthtransacti<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>upWhatIamsayingisconydinthsimpldiagramblowThisprspctiofsupplyanddmandisdiffrntfromthtraditionalprspctiinwhichbothsupplyanddmandarmasurdinquantityandthpricrlati<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>hipbtwnthmisdscribdintrmsoflasticityThisdiffrnchasimportantimplicati<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>forundrstandingmarktsPric=Total$TotalQTotal$=MonyCrditTotalQTotal$RasonARasonBRasonCSllrRasonARasonBRasonCSllrRasonARasonBRasonCtcRasonARasonBRasonCBuyrRasonARasonBRasonCBuyrRasonARasonBRasonCtcCrditMonyCrditMonyCrditMonyPric=Total$TotalQTotal$=MonyCrditTotalQTotal$TotalQTotal$RasonARasonBRasonCSllrRasonARasonBRasonCRasonARasonBRasonCSllrRasonARasonBRasonCSllrRasonARasonBRasonCRasonARasonBRasonCSllrRasonARasonBRasonCtcRasonARasonBRasonCtcRasonARasonBRasonCRasonARasonBRasonCtcRasonARasonBRasonCBuyrRasonARasonBRasonCRasonARasonBRasonCBuyrRasonARasonBRasonCBuyrRasonARasonBRasonCRasonARasonBRasonCBuyrRasonARasonBRasonCtcRasonARasonBRasonCRasonARasonBRasonCtcCrditMonyCrditMonyCrditMonycopyRayDalioThonlyothrimportantthingtoknowaboutthispartofthTmplatisthatspnding($)cancominithroftwoformsndashmonyandcrditForxampl,whnyougotoastortobuysomthingyoucanpaywithithracrditcardorcashIfyoupaywithacrditcardyouhacratdcrdit,whichisapromistodlirmonyatalatrdat,whras,ifyoupaywithmony,youhanosuchliabilityInbrif,thrardiffrnttypsofmarkts,diffrnttypsofbuyrsandsllrsanddiffrntwaysofpayingthatmakupthconomyForsimplicity,IwillputthmingroupsandsummarizhowthmachinworksMostbasically:Allchangsinconomicactiityandallchangsinfinancialmarktsrsquopricsardutochangsinthamountsof)monyor)crditthatarspntonthm(total$),andthamountsofthsitmssold(totalQ)Changsinthamountofbuying(total$)typicallyhaamuchbiggrimpactonchangsinconomicactiityandpricsthandochangsinthtotalamountofslling(totalQ)Thatisbcausthrisnothingthatrsquosasirtochangthanthsupplyofmonyandcrdit(total$)Forsimplicity,ltrsquosclustrthbuyrsinafwbigcatgorisBuyingcancomfromithr)thpriatsctoror)thgornmntsctorThpriatsctorc<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>istsofldquohousholdsrdquoandbusinsssthatcanbithrdomsticorforignThgornmntsctormostimportantlyc<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>istsofa)thFdralGornmnt,whichspndsitsmonyongoodsandsricsandb)thcntralbank,whichisthonlyntitythatcancratmonyand,byandlarg,mostlyspndsitsmonyonfinancialasstsBcausmonyandcrdit,andthroughthmdmand,arasirtocrat(orstopcrating)thanthproductionofgoodsandsricsandinstmntassts,whaconomicandpriccyclsSingthconomyandthmarktsthroughthisrdquotransacti<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>basdrdquoprspctirathrthansingitthroughthtraditionalconomicprspctihasmadallthdiffrncinthworldtomyundrstandingofwhatisgoingonandwhatisliklytohappnItltsmswhatisactuallyhappningandwhyitrsquoshappninginmuchmorgranularwaysthanthtraditionalwayoflookingatthingsIwillgiyouafwxampls:Thtraditionalwayoflookingatthrlati<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>hipbtwnsupply,dmandandpricmasursbothsupplyanddmandiathsamquantitynumbr(i,atanypointthdmandisqualtothsupplywhichisthamountofquantityxchangd)andthpricisdscribdaschangingiawhatiscalldlocityThrisnoattntionpaidtothtotalamountofspndingthatoccurrd,whospntit,andwhythyspntitYt,inanytimandacrossalltimframs,thrlati<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>hipbtwnthchanginthquantitisxchangdandthchanginthpricwillchangbasdonthsfactorsthatarbingignordThrowingallbuyrsintoongroup(rathrdistinguishingbtwnthmandundrstandingthirmotiati<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>)andmasuringthirdmandintrmsofquantitybought(rathrthaninthamountspnt)andignoringwhthrthspndingwaspaidforiamonyorcrdit,cratsathorticalandimprcispicturofthmarktsandthconomyMostofwhatconomistscallthlocityofmonyisnotthlocityofmonyatallndashitiscrditcrationVlocityisamisladingtrmcratdtoxplainhowthamountofspndinginayar(GDP)couldbpaidforbyasmallramountofmonyToxplainthisrlati<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>hip,popldiiddthamountofGDPbythamountofmonytoconythpicturthatmonyisgoingaroundataspdofsomanytimspryar,whichisthcalldthlocityThconomydosnrsquotworkthatwayInstad,muchofspndingcomsfromcrditcration,andcrditcrationdosnrsquotndmonytogoaroundinordrtooccurUndrstandingthishasbigimplicati<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>forundrstandinghowthconomyandmarktswillworkForxampl,whrasonwhohasthtraditionalprspctimightthinkthatalargincrasinthamountofmonywillbinflationary,onusingatransacti<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>basdapproachwillundrstandthatitCrditcanbcratdonthspotbtwnc<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>ntingpartisThidaofmonygoingaroundialocityandaddinguptonominalGDPisamisladingdscriptionofwhathappnsStatandlocalgornmntsarofcoursstillsignificantcopyRayDalioisthamountofspndingthatchangsprics,sothatifthincrasinthamountofmonyisoffsttingadcrasinthamountofcrdit,itwonrsquotmakadiffrncinfact,ifthamountofcrditiscontractingandthamountofmonyisnotincrasd,thamountofspndingwilldclinandpricswillfallThisdiffrntwayoflookingatthconomyandmarktshasallowdustoundrstandandanticipatconomicboomsandbuststhatothrsusingmortraditionalapproachshamissdHowthMarktBasdSystmWorksAsmntiond,thpriouslyoutlindconomicplayrsbuyandsllboth)goodsandsricsand)financialassts,andthycanpayforthmwithithr)monyor)crditInamarktbasdsystm,thisxchangtaksplacthroughfrchoicndashi,thrarldquofrmarktsrdquoinwhichbuyrsandsllrsofgoods,sricsandfinancialasstsmakthirtransacti<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>inpursuitofthirownintrstsThproductionandpurchassoffinancialassts(i,lndingandinsting)iscalldldquocapitalformationrdquoItoccursbcausboththbuyrandsllrofthsfinancialasstsblithatthtransactionisgoodforthmThoswithmonyandcrditproidittorcipintsinxchangforthrcipintsrsquoldquopromissrdquotopaythmmorSo,forthisprocsstoworkwll,thrmustblargnumbrsofcapablproidrsofcapital(i,instorslndrs)whochoostogimonyandcrdittolargnumbrsofcapablrcipintsofcapital(borrowrsandsllrsofquity)inxchangforthrcipintsrsquobliablclaimsthatthywillrturnamountsofmonyandcrditthatarworthmorthanthywrginWhilthamountofmonyinxistnciscontrolldbycntralbanks,thamountofcrditinxistnccanbcratdoutofthinairndashi,anytwowillingpartiscanagrtodoatransactiononcrditndashthoughthisisinfluncdbycntralbankpolicisInbubblsmorcrditiscratdthancanblatrpaidback,whichcratsbustsWhncapitalcontracti<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>occur,conomiccontracti<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>alsooccur,i,thrisnotnoughmonyandorcrditspntongoods,sricsandfinancialasstsThscontracti<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>typicallyoccurfortworas<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>,whicharmostcommonlyknownasrcssi<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>(whicharcontracti<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>withinashorttrmdbtcycl)anddprssi<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>(whicharcontracti<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>withindlragings)Rcssi<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>artypicallywllundrstoodbcausthyhappnoftnandmostofushaxprincdthm,whrasdprssi<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>anddlragingsartypicallypoorlyundrstoodbcausthyhappninfrquntlyandarnotwidlyxprincdAshorttrmdbtcycl,(whichiscommonlycalldthbusinsscycl),arissfroma)thratofgrowthinspnding(i,total$funddbythratsofgrowthinmonyandcrdit)bingfastrthanthratofgrowthinthcapacitytoproduc(i,totalQ)ladingtopric(P)incrassuntilb)thratofgrowthinspndingiscurtaildbytightmonyandcrdit,atwhichtimarcssionoccursInothrwords,arcssionisanconomiccontractionthatisdutoacontractioninpriatsctordbtgrowtharisingfromtightcntralbankpolicy(usuallytofightinflation),whichndswhnthcntralbankassRcssi<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>ndwhncntralbankslowrintrstratstostimulatdmandforgoodsandsricsandthcrditgrowththatfinancsthspurchass,bcauslowrintrstrats)rducdbtsriccosts)lowrmonthlypaymnts(dfacto,thcosts)ofitmsboughtoncrdit,whichstimulatsthdmandforthmand)raisthpricsofincomproducingasstslikstocks,bondsandralstatthroughthprsntaluffctofdiscountingthirxpctdcashflowsatthlowrintrstrats,producingaldquowalthffctrdquo<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>pndingIncontrast:Alongtrmdbtcycl,arissfromdbtsrisingfastrthanbothincomsandmonyuntilthiscanrsquotcontinubcausdbtsriccostsbcomxcssi,typicallybcausintrstratscanrsquotbrducdanymorAdlragingisthprocssofrducingdbtburdns(i,dbtanddbtsricrlatitoincoms)Dlragingstypicallyndiaamixof)dbtrduction,)austrity,)rdistributi<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>ofwalth,and)dbtDbtrducti<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>takthformofsommixofdbtwritdowns(sothamountofdbttobrpaidisrducd),thtimingofdbtpaymntsbingxtnddandintrstratsbingrducdcopyRayDaliomontizationAdprssionisthconomiccontractionphasofadlragingItoccursbcausthcontractioninpriatsctordbtcannotbrctifidbythcntralbanklowringthcostofmonyIndprssi<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>,a)alargnumbrofdbtorshaobligati<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>todlirmormonythanthyhatomtthirobligati<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>,andb)montarypolicyisinffctiinrducingdbtsriccostsandstimulatingcrditgrowthTypically,montarypolicyisinffctiinstimulatingcrditgrowthithrbcausintrstratscanrsquotblowrd(bcausintrstratsarnar)tothpointoffaorablyinfluncingthconomicsofspndingandcapitalformation(thisproducsdflationarydlragings),orbcausmonygrowthgosintothpurchasofinflationhdgasstsrathrthanintocrditgrowth,whichproducsinflationarydlragingsDprssi<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>artypicallynddbycntralbanksprintingmonytomontizdbtinamountsthatoffstthdflationarydprssionffctsofdbtrducti<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>andaustrityTobclar,whildprssi<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>arthcontractionphasofadlraging,dlragings(g,rducingdbtburdns)canoccurwithoutdprssi<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>ifthyarwllmanagd(SrdquoAnInDpthLookatDlragingsldquo)Diffrncsinhowgornmntsbhainrcssi<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>anddlragingsargoodclusthatsignalwhichonishappningForxampl,indlragings,cntralbankstypicallyrdquoprintldquomonythatthyustobuylargquantitisoffinancialasstsinordrtocompnsatforthdclininpriatsctorcrdit,whilthsacti<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>arunhardofinrcssi<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>Also,indlragings,cntralgornmntstypicallyspndmuch,muchmortomakupforthfallinpriatsctorspndingButltlsquosnotgtahadofourslsSincthstwotypsofcontracti<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>arjustpartsoftwodiffrnttypsofcyclsthatarxplaindmorcompltlyinthisTmplat,ltrsquoslookatthTmplatThsshowupinchangsonthirbalancshtsthatdonrsquotoccurinrcssi<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>copyRayDalioThTmplat:ThThrBigForcsIblithatthrmainforcsdrimostconomicactiity:)trndlinproductiitygrowth,)thlongtrmdbtcycland)thshorttrmdbtcyclFiguratilyspaking,thylookasshownblow:Whatfollowsisanxplanationofallthrofthsforcsandhow,byorlayingtharchtypicalshorttrmdbtcyclontopoftharchtypicallongtrmdbtcyclandorlayingthmbothontopofthproductiitytrndlin,oncandriagoodtmplatfortrackingmostconomicmarktmomntsWhilthsthrforcsapplytoallcountrisrsquoconomis,inthisstudywwilllookatthUSconomyorthlastyarsorsoasanxampltoconythTmplatThisTmplatwilltllyoujustaboutrythingIhatosayinanutshllIfyouarintrstdtoxplorthsconcptsinmordpthyoucangointothnxttwochaptrsofthisbookcopyRayDalio)ProductiityGrowthAsshownblowinchart,ralprcapitaGDPhasincrasdatanaragratofashadlssthanorthlastyarsanddidnrsquotaryalotfromthatThisisbcaus,ortim,knowldgincrass,whichinturnraissproductiityandliingstandardsAsshowninthischart,orthrylongrun,thrisrlatilylittlariationfromthtrndlinEnthGratDprssioninthslooksrathrsmallAsarsult,wcanbrlatilyconfidntthat,withtim,thconomywillgtbackontrackHowr,upclos,thsariati<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>fromtrndcanbnormousForxampl,typicallyindprssi<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>thpaktotroughdclinsinralconomicactiityararound,thdstructionoffinancialwalthistypicallymorthanandquitypricstypicallydclinbyaroundThlosssinfinancialwalthforthoswhohaitatthbginningofdprssi<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>artypicallygratrthanthsnumbrssuggstbcausthrisalsoatrmndousshiftingofwhohaswalthChartSourcs:GlobalFinancialDataBWEstimatsSwingsaroundthistrndarnotprimarilydutoxpansi<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>andcontracti<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>inknowldgForxampl,thGratDprssiondidn#toccurbcauspoplforgothowtofficintlyproduc,anditwasn#tstoffbywarordroughtAllthlmntsthatmakthconomybuzzwrthr,ytitstagnatdSowhydidn#tthidlfactorissimplyhirthunmploydtoutilizthabundantrsourcsinordrtoproducprosprityThscyclsarnotdutontsbyondourcontrol,g,naturaldisastrsThyardutohumannaturandthwaythcrditsystmworksMostimportantly,majorswingsaroundthtrndardutoxpansi<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>andcontracti<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>incrditndashi,crditcycls,mostimportantly)alongtrm(typicallytoyars)dbtcycland)ashortrtrm(typicallytoyars)dbtcycl(i,thldquobusinssmarktcyclrdquo)ProductiityisxamindingratrdpthinchaptrIII,ldquoProductiityandStructuralRform:WhyCountrisSuccdFail,andWhatShouldBDonSoFailingCountrisSuccdrdquoRalGDPPrCapita(Dollars,ln)sofarcopyRayDalioThTwoDbtCyclsIfindthatwhnrIstarttalkingaboutcycls,particularlythlongtrmarity,Iraisybrowsandlicitracti<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>similartothosIrsquodxpctifIwrtalkingaboutastrologyForthisrason,bforIbginxplainingthstwodbtcyclsI#dliktosayafwthingsaboutcyclsingnralAcyclisnothingmorthanalogicalsquncofntsladingtoarptitiouspattrnInamarktbasdconomy,cyclsofxpansi<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>incrditandcontracti<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>incrditdriconomiccyclsandthyoccurforprfctlylogicalras<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>Eachsquncisnotprdstindtorpatinxactlythsamwaynortotakxactlythsamamountoftim,thoughthpattrnsarsimilar,forlogicalras<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>Forxampl,ifyouundrstandthgamofMonopolyreg,youcanprttywllundrstandcrditandconomiccyclsEarlyinthgamofMonopolyreg,poplhaalotofcashandfwhotls,anditpaystoconrtcashintohotlsThoswhohamorhotlsmakmormonySingthis,popltndtoconrtasmuchcashaspossiblintoproprtyinordrtoprofitfrommakingothrplayrsgithmcashSoasthgamprogrsss,morhotlsaracquird,whichcratsmorndforcash(topaythbillsoflanding<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>omonlsrsquosproprtywithlotsofhotlsonit)atthsamtimasmanyfolksharundownthircashtobuyhotlsWhnthyarcaughtndingcash,thyarforcdtosllthirhotlsatdiscountdpricsSoarlyinthgam,ldquoproprtyiskingrdquoandlatrinthgam,ldquocashiskingrdquoThoswhoarbstatplayingthgamundrstandhowtoholdthrightmixofproprtyandcash,asthisrightmixchangsNow,ltrsquosimaginhowthisMonopolyreggamwouldworkifwchangdthrolofthbanksothatitcouldmakloansandtakdpositsPlayrswouldthnbabltoborrowmonytobuyhotlsand,rathrthanholdingthircashidly,thywoulddposititatthbanktoarnintrst,whichwouldproidthbankwithmormonytolndLtrsquosalsoimaginthatplayrsinthisgamcouldbuyandsllproprtisfromachothrgiingachothrcrdit(i,promisstogimonyandatalatrdat)IfMonopolyregwrplaydthisway,itwouldproidanalmostprfctmodlforthwayourconomyopratsThrwouldbmorspndingonhotls(thatwouldbfinancdwithpromisstodlirmonyatalatrdat)Thamountowdwouldquicklygrowtomultiplsofthamountofmonyinxistnc,hotlpricswouldbhighr,andthcashshortagforthdbtorswhoholdhotlswouldbcomgratrdownthroadSo,thcyclswouldbcommorpronouncdThbankandthoswhosadbydpositingthirmonyinitwouldalsogtintotroublwhnthinabilitytocomupwithnddcashcausdwithdrawalsfromthbankatthsamtimasdbtorscouldnrsquotcomupwithcashtopaythbankBasically,conomicandcrditcyclsworkthiswayWarnowgoingtolookathowcrditcyclsndashbothlongtrmdbtcyclsandshorttrmdbtcyclsndashdriconomiccyclsBirstwndtoundrstandsombasicsofhowmonyandcrditworkinamarktbasdsystmMonyandCrditinaMarktBasdSystmProsprityxistswhnthconomyisopratingatahighllofcapacity:inothrwords,whndmandisprssingupagainstaprxistingllofcapacityAtsuchtims,businssprofitsargoodandunmploymntislowThlongrthsconditi<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>prsist,thmorcapacitywillbincrasd,typicallyfinancdbycrditgrowthDcliningdmandcratsaconditionoflowcapacityutilizationasarsult,businssprofitsarbadandunmploymntishighThlongrthsconditi<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>xist,thmorcostcutting(i,rstructuring)willoccur,typicallyincludingdbtandquitywritdownsThrfor,prosprityqualshighdmand,andinourcrditbasdconomy,strongdmandqualsstrongralcrditgrowthconrsly,dlragingqualslowdmand,andhnclowrandfallingralcrditgrowthContrarytonowpopularthinking,rcssi<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>anddprssi<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>donotdlopbcausofproductiity(i,inabilitistoproducfficintly)thydlopfromdclinsindmand,typicallydutoafalloffincrditcrationcopyRayDalioSincchangsindmandprcdchangsincapacityindtrminingthdirctionofthconomy,onwouldthinkthatprospritywouldbasytoachisimplythroughpursuingpolicisthatwouldstadilyincrasdmandWhnthconomyisplagudbylowcapacityutilization,dprssdbusinssprofitabilityandhighunmploymnt,whydosn#tthgornmntsimplygiitagoodshotofwhatrittakstostimulatdmandinordrtoproducafarmorplasantnironmntofhighcapacityutilization,fatprofitsandlowunmploymntThanswrhastodowithwhatthatshotc<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>istsofMonyMonyiswhatyousttlyourpaymntswithSompoplmistaknlyblithatmonyiswhatrwillbuyyougoodsandsrics,whthrthat#sdollarbillsorsimplyapromistopay(g,whthrit#sacrditcardoranaccountatthlocalgrocry)Whnadpartmntstorgisyoumrchandisinrturnforyoursignaturonacrditcardform,isthatsignaturmonyNo,bcausyoudidnotsttlthtransactionRathr,youpromisdtopaymonySoyoucratdcrdit,whichisapromistopaymonyThFdralRsrhaschosntodfinldquomonyrdquointrmsofaggrgats(i,currncyplusariousformsofcrditM,M,tc),butthisismisladingVirtuallyallofwhatthycallmonyiscrdit(i,promisstodlirmony)rathrthanmonyitslfThtotalamountofdbtinthUSisabout$trillionandthtotalamountofmony(i,currncyandrsrs)inxistncisabout$trillionSo,ifwwrtousthsnumbrsasaguid,thamountofpromisstodlirmony(i,dbt)isroughlytimsthamountofmonythristodlirThmainpointisthatmostpoplbuythingswithcrditanddonrsquotpaymuchattntiontowhatthyarpromisingtodlirandwhrthyargoingtogtitfrom,sothrismuchlssmonythanobligati<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>todliritCrditAsmntiond,crditisthpromistodlirmony,andcrditspndsjustlikmonyWhilcrditandmonyspndjustasasily,whnyoupaywithmonythtransactionissttldbutifyoupaywithcrdit,thpaymnthasyttobmadThrartwowaysdmandcanincras:withcrditorwithoutitOfcours,it#sfarasirtostimulatdmandwithcrditthanwithoutitForxampl,inanconomyinwhichthrisnocrdit,ifIwanttobuyagoodorsricIwouldhatoxchangitforacomparablyaludgoodorsricofmyownThrfor,thonlywayIcanincraswhatIownandthconomyasawholcangrowisthroughincrasdproductionAsarsult,inanconomywithoutcrdit,thgrowthindmandisc<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>traindbythgrowthinproductionThistndstorducthoccurrncofboombustcycls,butitalsorducsboththfficincythatladstohighprosprityandsrdlraging,i,ittndstoproduclowrswingsaroundthproductiitygrowthtrndlinofaboutBycontrast,inanconomyinwhichcrditisradilyaailabl,IcanacquirgoodsandsricswithoutgiingupanyofmyownAbankwilllndthmonyonmypldgtorpay,scurdbymyxistingasstsandfuturarningsForthsras<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>crditandspndingcangrowfastrthanmonyandincomSincthatsoundscountrintuiti,ltmgianxamplofhowthatcanworkIfIaskyoutopaintmyofficwithanagrmntthatIwillgiyouthmonyinafwmonths,yourpaintingmyofficwilladdtoyourincom(bcausyouwrpaidwithcrdit),soitwilladdtoGDP,anditwilladdtoyourntworth(bcausmypromistopayisc<spanclass='wran'>ons<span>idrdasmuchofanasstasthcashthatIstillowyou)Ourtransactionwillalsoaddanasst(i,thcapitalimpromntinmyoffic)andaliability(thdbtIstillowyou)tomybalancshtNowltrsquossaythatbuoydbythisincrasdamountofbusinssthatIgayouandyourimprodfinancialconditionthatyouwanttoxpandSoyougotoyourbankrwhossy
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海归起薪低,怎么解

留学6年回归工作,底薪只有两千,海归“贬值”了吗?如何将海归的思维更加创新、语言优势,沟通更主动等这些优点发挥出来,不要自我评价太高,稳稳当当制定求职标准,写好求职简历,告别低薪不是问题。

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