经济周期图表

TABLE 1 KEY FACTS ABOUT US BUSINESS CYCLE FLUCTUATIONS, 1955Q1-2003Q2 Average Share of GDP Standard Deviation Correlation with Real GDP Decimal Relative to Real GDP NATIONAL ACCOUNTS GDP 1.000 0.0160 1.00 1.000 PRIVATE CONSUMPTION (NONDURABLES + SERVICES) 0.557 0.0081 0.51 0.833 Nondurable goods 0.242 0.0112 0.70 0.791 Services 0.315 0.0071 0.44 0.761 BROAD INVESTMENT 0.244 0.0613 3.82 0.931 Durable goods 0.083 0.0478 2.99 0.799 Private investment 0.161 0.0719 4.49 0.912 Fixed investment 0.155 0.0497 3.11 0.904 Nonresidential 0.110 0.0479 2.99 0.788 Structures 0.037 0.0507 3.16 0.473 Equipment & software 0.073 0.0536 3.35 0.850 Residential 0.045 0.0998 6.23 0.649 Change in inventories 0.006 0.0056* 0.35* 0.627* NET EXPORTS -0.008 0.0041* 0.25* -0.390* Exports 0.076 0.0496 3.10 0.315 Imports 0.084 0.0479 2.99 0.712 GOVERNMENT PURCHASES 0.207 0.0181 1.13 0.048 Federal 0.098 0.0298 1.86 -0.044 State and local 0.109 0.0119 0.74 0.226 Private consumption (NIPA definition inc. durables) 0.640 0.0128 0.80 0.876 PRICE LEVEL (GDP deflator) -- 0.0082 0.51 -0.654 LABOR VARIABLES TOTAL HOURS WORKED† -- 0.0153 0.955 0.882 Employment -- 0.0132 0.821 0.794 Hours per worker† -- 0.0042 0.260 0.733 PRODUCTIVITY GDP per hour worked† -- 0.0074 0.461 0.325 GDP per worker -- 0.0097 0.609 0.572 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE -- 0.1132 7.066 -0.852 Notes: This table comes close to reproducing Table 1.1 in Barro. Detailed information about the table is found on the next page. 2 Average Share of GDP: Defined only for the national accounts series, this indicates the average fraction of GDP attributable to each expenditure category. Standard Deviation and Correlation with Real GDP: Each variable was expressed in natural logarithms and detrended using the Hodrick-Prescott filter.§ Statistics were computed for the deviations from trend. The standard deviation (relative to Real GDP) column is the ratio of the number in the previous column to the standard deviation of real GDP, so it tells you something about the relative variability of the series compared to GDP. The final column tells you something about comovement. * Since the change in inventories and net exports can both be negative, for these three columns these variables were expressed as fractions of GDP before being detrended. † Total hours, hours per worker and GDP per hour worked are all measured from 1964Q1. Original Units: The national accounts series were measured in billions of 1996 US dollars. The price level is an index number equal to 100 in 1996. Employment is measured in 1000s, and hours per worker is measured per week. The unemployment rate is expressed in percent. Sources: All series were obtained from the website of the Bureau of Economic Analysis with the exception of unemployment, employment and hours which were obtained from the website of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. § If you want to know more about how the trend and cycle are defined take a look at Robert J. Hodrick and Edward C. Prescott (1997) “Postwar U.S. Business Cycles: An Empirical Investigation,” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 29(1), (February), pp. 1–16. 3 FIGURE 1 REAL GDP IN THE UNITED STATES (quarterly data at annual rates) (a) Logarithm of Real GDP 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.8 8.0 8.2 8.4 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.2 47 51 55 59 63 67 71 75 79 83 87 91 95 99 03 bi lli on s of 1 99 6 do lla rs (l og ) NBER Recession Real GDP (b) Deviation of Real GDP from Trend -0.07 -0.05 -0.03 -0.01 0.01 0.03 0.05 47 51 55 59 63 67 71 75 79 83 87 91 95 99 03 x 10 0 = pe rc en t NBER Recession Real GDP 4 FIGURE 2 DEVIATIONS FROM TREND FOR OTHER VARIABLES (a) Consumption: Nondur. + Services -0.06 -0.04 -0.02 0 0.02 0.04 0.06 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 Real GDP Con. ND + S (b) Consumption: Durables -0.15 -0.10 -0.05 0.00 0.05 0.10 0.15 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 Real GDP Con. ND + S (c) Private Investment -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 Real GDP Investment (d) Government Purchases -0.08 -0.06 -0.04 -0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 Real GDP Government (e) Price Level -0.06 -0.04 -0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 Real GDP GDP deflator (f) Employment -0.06 -0.04 -0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 Real GDP Employment (g) Productivity -0.06 -0.04 -0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 Real GDP Output per worker (h) Hours per worker -0.06 -0.04 -0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.06 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 Real GDP Hours per worker