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牛鞭效应nullThe Bullwhip EffectThe Bullwhip EffectBy: Shannon ReimerWhat’s covered? What’s covered? Bullwhip effect defined Results of the bullwhip effect Causes of the bullwhip effect An example Reducing the bullwhip effect Your firm and the bullwhip effect SummaryBu...

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nullThe Bullwhip EffectThe Bullwhip EffectBy: Shannon ReimerWhat’s covered? What’s covered? Bullwhip effect defined Results of the bullwhip effect Causes of the bullwhip effect An example Reducing the bullwhip effect Your firm and the bullwhip effect SummaryBullwhip Effect DefinedBullwhip Effect DefinedThe bullwhip effect is the uncertainty caused from distorted information flowing up and down the supply chain. Who is affected?Who is affected?Nearly all industries are affected! Firms that experience large variations in demand are at risk. Firms that depend on suppliers upstream or distributors and retailers downstream may be at risk.Results of the bullwhip effectResults of the bullwhip effectExcess inventories Problems with quality Increased raw material costs Overtime expenses Increased shipping costsResults of the bullwhip effect - continued.Results of the bullwhip effect - continued.Lost customer service Lengthened lead time Lost sales Unnecessary adjusted capacityCauses of the bullwhip effectCauses of the bullwhip effectUn-forecasted sales promotions Sales incentives Lack of customer confidence Customers turning back sales orders Freight incentivesBullwhip effect - an exampleBullwhip effect - an exampleChronology of company “X’s” supply chain problem. Company X produces widgets for sale on the open market. Customer demand for Company X’s widgets become stagnant Retailers offer a sales promotion to boost sales of Company X widgetsExample – continued Example – continued Retailers fail to notify manufacturers of sales promotion Company X recognizes that demand for widgets has increased. Company X increases inventory to allow for increased manufacturing of widgets.Example - continuedExample - continuedCompany X notifies part suppliers of increased demand. Suppliers increase inventory to meet demand. Moral of the storyMoral of the storyDistorted information along the supply chain caused inventory levels to increase along the supply chain which may result in increased inventory costs, poor customer service, adjusted capacity and many other problems associated with the bullwhip effect.Supply Chain in EquilibriumSupply Chain in EquilibriumCustomer demand forecast = 10 units SuppliersProducersDistributorsRetailersProducts & ServicesProducts & ServicesProducts & ServicesInformationCashKey: =Inventory Levels10 Units10 Units10 Units10 Units10 Units10 UnitsRetailers are selling product at a constant rate and price. Firms along the supply chain are able to set their inventory to meet demand.Supply Chain DisruptedSupply Chain DisruptedCustomer Demand forecast = 20 units SuppliersProducersDistributorsRetailersProducts & ServicesProducts & ServicesProducts & ServicesInformation FlowCash FlowKey: =Inventory Levels160 Units80 Units40 Units80 Units40 Units20 UnitsAs demand increases, the distributor decides to accommodate the forecasted demand and increase inventory to buffer against unforeseen problems in demand. Each step along the supply chain increases their inventory (double in this example) to accommodate demand fluctuations. The top of the supply chain receives the harshest impact of the whip effect.Solving the Bullwhip dilemmaSolving the Bullwhip dilemmaImprove communication along the supply chain. Retailers notifying firms upstream of sales promotions will help clarify demand signals from consumers Improved information will improve demand forecasts upstream in the supply chain. Solving the Bullwhip dilemma - continuedSolving the Bullwhip dilemma - continuedImprove sources of forecast data Firms can use data from Point of Sale computer systems to derive data from forecasting Firms along the supply chain can use EDI systems to retrieve data on items that are legitimately being purchased by customersSolving the Bullwhip dilemma - continuedSolving the Bullwhip dilemma - continuedWork with firms upstream and downstream in the supply chain Create smaller order increments to decrease time between orders. Order processing will become closer to real-time. Work to develop consistent pricing of products to avoid demand fluctuations from the sale of inexpensive products. Reducing the bullwhip effect in your firm Reducing the bullwhip effect in your firm Are prices in your supply chain stable? Is information between firms along the supply chain accurate and timely?Reducing the bullwhip effect in your firmReducing the bullwhip effect in your firmIs sales being forecasted on projected data? Are you forecasting sales using data from EDI or Point of Sale computer systems. Are incentives for sales representatives along the supply chain at minimum?Reducing the bullwhip effect in your firm Reducing the bullwhip effect in your firm Are orders being placed in small increments? Are batch orders reduced to minimum levels?Reducing the bullwhip effect in your firm Reducing the bullwhip effect in your firm If you answered no to any of the previous questions regarding your firm and the bullwhip effect, then you may have an opportunity to reduce costs to your individual firm.SummarySummaryBullwhip effect is caused from distortions in information along the supply chain Results of the bullwhip effect can include: excess inventories, problems with quality, increased costs, overtime expenditures, lost customer service, lost sales and more.Summary - ContinuedSummary - ContinuedCauses of the bullwhip effect may include: poor forecasting of sales, incorrect information along the supply chain, sales incentives, sales promotions and lack of customer confidence.Summary - ContinuedSummary - ContinuedSolutions to the bullwhip effect include: improved information flow between firms along the supply chain, stable pricing, small order increments, focused demand on EDI or POS systems and removal of sales incentives.Helpful ReadingsHelpful ReadingsSupply Chain Management: Cracking the Bullwhip Effect Michael Donovan Taming the Bullwhip Effect Ram Reddy The Bullwhip Effect Factory Logic whitepaper Operations Management 4th edition Roberta S. Russell & Bernard W. Taylor
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