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AP Shipping Monthly.pdf

AP Shipping Monthly

wayne008
2010-11-17 0人阅读 举报 0 0 暂无简介

简介:本文档为《AP Shipping Monthlypdf》,可适用于经济金融领域

July,APShippingMonthlyDryBulkShippingRatesClosetoTroughLevelsInflectionPointveCatalystDrybulkshipping:RatesclosetotroughlevelsInflectionwillbepositivecatalystWithdrybulkshippingratescollapsingoverthelastweeks,wethinkcurrentratesareclosetotroughlevelsasratesforCapesizeshipsareatcashbreakevenlevelsandshipownersarestartingtolayupshipsDemandlikelytobeweakneartermsupplyconcernspersist…OverQ,weexpectweakdrybulkshippingratestopersistgivenlowerdemandforironoreasChinesesteelmillsfurtherreduceproductionduetoweaksteelpricinganddemand…butvaluationsattractiveWerecommendinvestorsaccumulatePacificBasinandSinotransShippingbothwithstrongbalancesheetsandwellpositionedtomaintaingrowROEwithlowcostfleetexpansion,whenopportunitiesariseContainershipping–StrongQresults:MaerskandHapagLloydhavebothrecentlyannouncedpositiverevisionstotheirprofitforecasts,highlightingthestrengthofcontainershippingvolumesandfreightrates,strongerthanearlierexpectationsCSCLalsorecentlyissuedaprofitupdate,highlightingprofitsforH‘Tradedownimpact’couldmeanvolumeofgoodsslowing(containershippingvolumes)toalesserextentvsvalueofgoods(exports)WeexpectslowingvolumesfromQbutwebelievethatcontainershippingvolumescouldbestrongerthanbearishexpectationsduetothemultiplierimpactoflowvaluegoodsSupplyconcernseasing:)Limitednewordershasresultedintheorderbookfallingtoofthefleet)Onlyofthecontainershipfleetremainsidleandcomprisesmainlyofsmallships)Slowsteamingislikelytopersistduetocostsavings,effectivereducingshipcapacityandlowerscarbonemissionsIndustryViewsIndustryIndustryViewChinaTransportationInLineHongKongTransportationInLineSingaporeTransportationInLineTaiwanTransportationInLineRecentReportsTitleDateAPShippingMonthly:QContainerShippingResultsCouldBeveSurpriseJun,SophieLohChinYLim,CFAChinSerLeeAPContainerShippingContainerShippingRatingPriceTargetPriceasofUpsideDownsidePTCSCL(HK)EWHK$HK$EGM(TW)EWNT$NT$NOL(NEPSSI)OWS$S$OOIL(HK)OWHK$HK$WHL(TW)EWNT$NT$YMM(TW)UWNT$NT$APDryBulkShippingDryBulkShippingRatingPriceTargetPriceasofUpsideDownsidetoPTCSD(HK)OWHK$HK$ChinaCOSCO(HK)EWHK$HK$PB(HK)OWHK$HK$SinotransSL(HK)OWHK$HK$STXPO(STXPSI)EWS$S$STXPO(KS)EWKRW,KRW,EW=EqualweightUW=UnderweightOW=OverweightPT=PriceTargetSource:MorganStanleyResearchForvaluationmethodologyandrisksassociatedwithanypricetargetsabove,pleaseemailmorganstanleyresearchmorganstanleycomwitharequestforvaluationmethodologyandrisksonaparticularstockMorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearchAsaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearchInvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecisionForanalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport=AnalystsemployedbynonUSaffiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoNASDNYSErestrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccountMorganStanleyAsia(Singapore)PteSophieLohSophieLohmorganstanleycomChinYLim,CFAChinLimmorganstanleycomChinSerLeeChinserLeemorganstanleycomMORGANSTANLEYRESEARCHASIAPACIFICMORGANSTANLEYRESEARCHJuly,APShippingMonthlyPositivecatalystsfromBDIInflectionandStrongQResultsDryBulkShipping:RatesClosetoTroughLevelsInflectionPointPositiveCatalystforStocksBDIhascollapsedinthelastweeks…SpotdrybulkshippingratesasreflectedbytheBalticDryIndex(BDI)hascollapsedoverthelastweeks,fromapeakof,to,currently(Exhibit)…butlikelyclosetotroughlevelsWethinkthatratesdownsideislimited,particularlyforthelargershipsizes–CapesizeandPanamaxThisisbecausecurrentCapesizeratesareatorbelowcashbreakevenlevelsandshipownersarestartingtolayupshipsPanamaxratesarebelowoperatingcostsandareclosetocashbreakevenWebelievethatcashbreakevenlevelsactsasaneffectivefloorfordrybulkshippingrates(Exhibit)ExhibitCapesizeRatesareatorbelowCashCostPanamaxRatesatbelowOperatingCostHandysizeHandymaxPanamaxCapesizePriceofship(US$mil)NewbuildAvgyrsold(avgJunbuilt)Avgyrsold(avgJunbuilt)Avgyrsold(avgJunbuilt)AvgpeakNBprice(avgJanDecbuilt)SecondhandAvgpeaksecondhandprice(avgJanSept)KeyAssumptionsDailyoperatingcost(US$day),,,,Admindirectoverheads(US$day),,,,DebtEquity,costofborrowingDepreciationoveryearsCashcost=includesoperatingcostinterest(US$day)NewbuildAvgyrsold(avgJunbuilt),,,,Avgyrsold(avgJunbuilt),,,,Avgyrsold(avgJunbuilt),,,,Avgpeakprice(avgJanDecbuilt),,,,SecondhandAvgpeaksecondhandprice(avgJanSept),,,,Operatingcost=cashcostdepreciationdirectoverheads(US$day)NewbuildAvgyrsold(avgJunbuilt),,,,Avgyrsold(avgJunbuilt),,,,Avgyrsold(avgJunbuilt),,,,Avgpeakprice(avgJanDecbuilt),,,,SecondhandAvgpeaksecondhandprice(avgJanSept),,,,CurrenttimecharterratesJul(US$day),,,,QFFA*(US$day)NA,,,*atJulNA=NotApplicableSource:Clarkson,Drewry,TheBalticExchange,MorganStanleyResearchMORGANSTANLEYRESEARCHJuly,APShippingMonthlyExhibitVolatileBDI:declinefromendMayJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulBDISource:Datastream,MorganStanleyResearchOverthenextmonths,weexpectdrybulkshippingratestoremainsoft…duetolowerdemandforironoreasChinesesteelmillsfurtherreduceproductioninQduetoweakpricinganddemandJuneironoreimportsofmiltonneswaslowerMoManddownYoYaresignalingthatsteelmillshavealreadybeencuttingproduction(Exhibit)ExhibitChina’sIronOreImportsdownMoMlikelyindicatingthatSteelmillsarereducingproductionSource:Reuters,MorganStanleyResearchOverthelastmonths(AprJun),mildwtorships,representingoftheglobalfleetweredelivered,contributingtoweakerdrybulkratesPortcongestioneasingisfurtherresultinginhighereffectiveshipsupplyandsofterrates(Exhibits)…butweexpectaseasonalrecoveryindrybulkshippingratesinQwiththebeginningoftheUSgrainseasonandananticipatedpickupofChinaironoreandcoalimportsFreightratesonForwardFreightAgreements(FFAs)ishigherthanspotrates,reflectingthemorepositivesentimentforQand(Exhibits)ExhibitFreightForwardAgreementsforCapesizeVesselsindicatesmorepositivesentimentforQQ,,,,,,,Spot*QQQQUS$dayCurrentoneweekagoonemonthago*AtJul,Source:Bloomberg,Imarex,Clarkson,TheBalticExchange,MorganStanleyResearchExhibitFreightForwardAgreementsforPanamaxVesselsForwardratesaresimilarlymorepositive,,,,,,,,,,Spot*QQQQUS$dayCurrentoneweekagoonemonthago*AtJul,Source:Bloomberg,Imarex,Clarkson,TheBalticExchange,MorganStanleyResearchValuationsfordrybulkshippingstocksbelowbookvaluesareattractiveWithdrybulkshippingstockscorrectingoverthelasttenweeks(Exhibit)andunderperformingtheirrespectivemarketindices(Exhibit),valuationsareattractive–SinotransShippingatx,PacificBasinandSTXPanOceanatxEPBV,ChinaShippingDevelopmentatxandChinaCOSCOatxWethinkthatstockcorrectionnowhasadequatelypricedinourconcernsoflargeshipdeliveriesoverthenexttwoyears,whichwillcaptheupsidetofreightrates(Exhibit)MORGANSTANLEYRESEARCHJuly,APShippingMonthlyExhibitSinceMay,DryBulkShippingStocks(underourcoverage)HaveCorrectedChinaCoscoSTXPO(Singapore)(STXPO(KoreaPacBasinSinotransShippingCSDMBCSincerePreciousTTAUMingSource:Datastream,MorganStanleyResearchExhibit…UnderperformingTheirRespectiveMarketIndicesbyHSCEIHKSESTIKLSEKOPSISETTWSESource:Datastream,MorganStanleyResearchContainerShipping:DemanduncertaintybutSupplyconcernsunwarrantedWeakercontainershippingvolumesfromQ,HighUncertaintyfor…ContainershippingvolumeshaveremainedextremelystrongforJune,withChinaportdataupYoYalthoughlowerthanpeakvolumesrecordedinMayConversely,undoubtedly,demandgrowthwillslowoverthenextfewmonths,duetoahigherbaseimpactandwiththesixmonthlaggedimpactofEuropeanausteritymeasuresWeexpectAsiaEuropevolumestopostzerogrowthfromQbutexpectIntraAsiademandgrowthtoremainstrong,particularlywiththeChinaASEANfreetradeagreementandtheEconomicCooperationFrameworkAgreementbetweenChinaandTaiwanboostingtradeflowswithintheAsiaregionoverthenextfewyears(Exhibit)ExhibitWeareexpectingAsiaEuropedemandgrowthfromQwhileIntraAsiademandgrowthcouldbemaintainedatEEEGlobalHeadhaulAsiaUSHeadhaulAsiaEuropeMedIntraAsiaE=MorganStanleyResearchEstimatesSource:Drewry,MorganStanleyResearch…but‘tradedownimpact’couldresultinvolumeofgoodsslowingtoalesserextentvsvalueofgoodsAnecdotalevidencefromvariousindustryparticipantshavehighlightedanewindustrytrend–‘tradedownimpact’,ofwhichthevalueofgoodsexportedtoEuropeandUShasdeteriorated,ie,shipmentvolumesofcheapshoesandclothingfromChinatoEuropearerecoveringfaster(slowingless)thanshipmentsofmoreexpensiveshoesandclothingDrewryShippingConsultantshavealsohighlightedthis‘tradedownimpact’intheirrecentlypublishedContainerForecasterQ,whichindicatesthatdatafromtheUSCensusBureaushowsthatcontainerexportsfromChinatoUSportsincreasedinvaluebyYoYinQlowerthantheincreasebyvolumes,whichwasupQreflectedasimilarscenario,whereChinaUSexportsweredowninvaluetermsbutreflectedincreasesinvolumes(Exhibit)MORGANSTANLEYRESEARCHJuly,APShippingMonthlyExhibitYoYchangeinChinaContainerExportstoUSportsreflectsagradual‘tradedownimpact’Source:USCensusBureau,DrewrySupplyConcernsEasing#:Orderbookasoffleetdeclining:Withlimitednewbuildcontainershipordersoverthelastmonths–withtheonlynotableorderbeingplacedbyEvergreenMarineGroupforten,TEUvesselsfordeliveryin,andsomecancellationsineffectivecontractsremoved,thecontainershiporderbookhasdeclinedsharplyFromapeakofofthecontainershipfleetatend,thecurrentorderbookhasdeclinedtoofthecontainershipfleet(Exhibit),withdeliveriesstaggeredoverthenextyears,resultinginnominalfleetgrowthofinE,inEandinEonourestimates(Exhibit)ExhibitOrderbookhasDeclinedtooftheContainershipFleet,,,,,,,,EndEndQQQQQQQQQQQQQQQ'TEUsOrderbook(LHS)ofglobalfleet(RHS)Source:Drewry,Clarkson,MorganStanleyResearch#:Laidupvesselsonlyofglobalfleetandaremainlysmallerships:Inaddition,laidupvesselshavelargelybeenredeployed–laidupvesselsnowmerelyoftheglobalfleet,downsharplyfromapeakofatend,removingtheoverhangofsupplybeingrapidlyaddedback(Exhibit)Theremainingproportionoflaidupvesselscompriseslargelyofvesselsofsmallersizes(Exhibit),whichifdeployedwilllargelybeontheshorthaulroutes,hencehavinglimitedimpactonthesupplydeploymentonlonghaulAsiaEuropeandTranspacificroutesExhibitLaidupShipsHasDeclinedtoofGlobalContainershipFleetinbeginningJul,,,,,OctNovDecDecJanJanFebFebMarMarMarAprAprMayMayJunJunJulJulAugAugAugSepOctOctNovNovDecDecJanJanFebFebMarMarMarAprAprMayMayJunJunJul'TEUNoofshipsTEUNo,ofshipsSource:AXSAlphaliner,MorganStanleyResearchExhibitofLaidupCapacityBelongstoShippingCompaniesMoreActiveSupplyManagement,VesselsHaveBeenRapidlyRedeployed,AprMayMayJunJunJulJulAugAugAugSepOctOctNovNovDecDecJanJanFebFebMarMarMarAprAprMayMayJunJunJul'TEUContainerShippingCompaniesShipownersSource:AXSAlphaliner,MorganStanleyResearchMORGANSTANLEYRESEARCHJuly,APShippingMonthlyExhibitIdleContainershipsAreMainlySmallShipsOnlyoutofShipsare>TEUSource:AXSAlphaliner#:SlowSteamingawinwinsituationforshippingcompaniesunlikelytoreverttofasterspeedsInourlastmonthlyupdate,weprovideadetailedanalysisontheeconomicsofslowsteaming,whichweviewextremelycompellingforshippingcompanies(Exhibit)Formoredetails,seeourreport:APShippingMonthly:QContainerShippingResultsCouldBeveSurprise,June,Wethinkthatslowsteamingisadualwinscenarioforshippingcompaniesasallowsforbothsignificantfuelcostsavingsandremovesshipsupply,resultingintightloadfactorsandtheabilitytoimplementprofitablefreightrateswhilethehigherinventorycostsarebornebycargoownersInaddition,slowsteaminghasalsobeencitedasameansofreducingcarbonemissionsand,withincreasingprominenceofenvironmentalconcerns,webelievethatthiswillaidthecaseforslowsteamingadvocates(mostshippingcompanies)Accordingly,particularlygiventhewelldocumenteddemanduncertaintyin,webelieveitextremelyunlikelyforshippingcompaniestoattempttocapturehigherprofitsneartermbyrapidlyrevertingtofasterspeeds,asrevisiontoslowsteamingagainpostthepeakseasonwillbedifficulttoimplementMORGANSTANLEYRESEARCHJuly,APShippingMonthlyExhibitEconomicsofSlowSteamingExtremelyCompelling,ParticularlysinceFreightRatesareNotLoweredLowerSupplyCouldResultinHigherFreightRatesAsiaEuropeRouteNormalSpeedsSlowSteamingExtraSlowSteaming#UltraSlowSteaming##shipsshipsshipsshipsRoundVoyageDistance(Miles),,,,SeaDays(days)PortDays(days)Totalroundvoyage(days)Speed(knots)FuelConsumption(tpd)Fuelprice($tonne)ShipCost($daytimecharter),,,,ShipCost(US$mil)InterestCostShiponoperatingleaseCostperRoundVoyage(US$mil)FuelCostSavingsAdditionalShipCost(timecharter)()()()NetsavingsperroundvoyageCostsavingsperannum*Totalannualcostsavingsvsnormalspeeds**OwnedshipCostperRoundVoyage(US$mil)FuelCostSavingsAdditionalShipCost(depreciationandinterest)()()()NetsavingsperroundvoyageCostsavingsperannum*Totalannualcostsavingsvsnormalspeeds***Assumingroundvoyagesperannum**Theoreticalcomputation,couldbelowerasshippingcompaniesaresailingatfasterspeedsonheadhaulroutesandslowingdownatgreaterspeedsonbackhaulroutes#

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