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首页 gs_AP Conglomerates

gs_AP Conglomerates.pdf

gs_AP Conglomerates

ellada
2010-10-13 0人阅读 举报 0 0 暂无简介

简介:本文档为《gs_AP Conglomeratespdf》,可适用于行业分析领域

October,AsiaPacific:Conglomeratesoutlook:BottomupfocusBuyHutch,CITICandCOSCOPacificTopideas:BuyHutch,CITICandCOSCOPacificSellJardineHKChinaconglomeratestockshaveexhibiteddiversepriceperformanceytdLookinginto,webelievethestrategyforthissectorwillremainbottomup,identifyingcompanieswithsustainableearningsgrowth,exposuretosectorthemesandcompanyspecificcatalystsAfteryearsofunderperformance,achangeofmarketperceptionandimprovingreturnprofilesshouldunderpinHutchandCITICtofurtherrerate,inourviewInvestmentthemesandratingchanges()BroaderbasedresumptionoflocalspendinginHK–BetterjobsecurityandwealtheffectpostabuoyantpropertymarketshoulddriveapickupinlocalspendingandsustainretailrentalgrowthWeupgradeMTRCfromNeutraltoBuyWhilemarketfocusisalwaysonitspropertydevelopmentrights,MTRCisalsoleveragedtolocalretailspendingandinflationAchangeinretailrentalandinflationwouldliftitsNAVbyand()HKofficeupcycletocontinue–LatestdataconfirmaspilloverofofficerentalgrowthfromCentraltodecentralizeddistricts–athemewehadidentifiedwhenupgradingSwireinMayWithKowloonEastofficevacancydowntoandlimitedsupplyelsewhere,weexpectahikeinofficerentsinAlthoughSwireistradingclosetoanalltimehigh,itsvaluationlooksattractiveataNAVdiscount,vslongtermof()Overpessimismonglobaltrade–WebelievethemarketisoverlypessimisticaboutglobaltradeandforecastChinaportthroughputgrowthin,withapickupofdemandfromemergingeconomiesoffsettingEUUSslowdownWithUSretailinventorytosalesatanalltimelow,weseelittleroomforfurtherdestockingandbelievetheoutlookisnotasbleakasinWepreferCOSCOPacificoverChinaMerchants()Upsideinsteelpriceonenergycontrolmeasures–Givenrisingconcernonenergyuse,ourcommodityteambelievesthegov’twillcontinuetotargetenergyconsumption,bringingaboutstructuralchangesinsupplyoutlookCITICoffersexposurewithhalfofitsNAVincommoditysectorsWeupgradeWheelockfromSelltoNeutral,asitsstubvalueisatalltimelowWealsodowngradeJardinefromNeutraltoSell,asitssubsidiary,Astra,istradingatsignificantpremiumtoitsaverageandIndonesianmarketofferinglimitedscopeforNAVupgradesAfterrollingoverourNAVestimatesto,wereviseourmTPsbytoandEPSbytoinESUMMARYOFRATINGANDTPCHANGESAPCONGLOMERATESVALUATIONSUMMARYRELATEDRESEARCHHutchisonWhampoa:PostresulttakeawayspathtoHK$ifGbecomesselffunding(Aug,)COSCOPacific:NewportturnaroundontracktoimprovereturnsUpgradetoCBuy(Sept,)ChinaMerchantsHoldings:TakeawaysfromNDRcautiouslyoptimisticaboutHoutlook(Sept,)SwirePacific:OverhangremovedfocusonfundamentalsreinstatewithBuy(May,)SimonCheung,CFAsimoncheunggscomGoldmanSachs(Asia)LLCTheGoldmanSachsGroup,IncdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreportsAsaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreportInvestorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecisionForRegACcertification,seetheendofthetextOtherimportantdisclosuresfollowtheRegACcertification,orgotowwwgscomresearchhedgehtmlAnalystsemployedbynonUSaffiliatesarenotregisteredqualifiedasresearchanalystswithFINRAintheUSJanetLujanetlugscomGoldmanSachs(Asia)LLCTheGoldmanSachsGroup,IncGlobalInvestmentResearchTargetdiscCCYTickerNewOldNewOldNAVHongKongHutchisonWhampoHKDHKBuyBuyMTRCorporationHKDHKBuyNeutralSwirePacific'A'HKDHKBuyBuyWharfHoldingsHKDHKNeutralNeutralCheungKongHldgsHKDHKNeutralNeutralCheungKongInfraHKDHKNeutralNeutralWheelockCoHKDHKNeutralSellJardineMathesonUSDJARDSISellNeutralChinaCITICPacificHKDHKBuyBuyCOSCOPacificHKDHKBuy*Buy*ChinaMerchantsHKDHKNeutralNeutralChinaResourcesHKDHKNeutralNeutralSIPGCNYSSSellSell*OnourAsiaPacificConvictionBuySelllistSource:Companydata,GoldmanSachsResearchestimatesmNAVRatingsbasedTPPrem(disc)toShareFwdFwdECompanypriceNAVNAV()EEyld()HutchisonWhampoa()MTRCorporation()SwirePacific'A'()WharfHoldings()CheungKongHldgs()CheungKongInfrastructure()WheelockCo()JardineMatheson()ChinaCITICPacific()COSCOPacific()ChinaMerchants()ChinaResources()ShanghaiInt'lPortGp*OnourAsiaPacificConvictionBuySellListSource:Bloomberg,Companydata,GoldmanSachsresearchestimatesPE(X)渐飞研究报告http:bgpanlvnetOctober,AsiaPacific:ConglomeratesGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchTableofcontentsSummaryofratingandtargetpricechanges DiversepriceperformanceytdHutch,COSCOandCITICtoppicks Keyinvestmentthemes Stockimplicationsandinvestmentviews HongKongconglomerates ()HutchisonWhampoa(HKBuymTP:HK$) ()MTRC(HKBuymTP:HK$) ()SwirePacific(HKBuymTP:HK$) ()Wharf(HKNeutralmTP:HK$) ()CheungKongHoldings(HKNeutralmTP:HK$) ()CheungKongInfrastructure(HKNeutralmTP:HK$) ()Wheelock(HKNeutralmTP:HK$) ()JardineMatheson(JMSPSellmTP:US$) Chinaconglomerates ()CITICPacific(HKBuymonthtargetprice:HK$) ()COSCOPacific(HKBuy,onConvictionListmonthtargetprice:HK$) ()ChinaMerchantsHoldings(HKNeutralmTP:HK$) ()ChinaResourcesEnterprise(HKNeutralmTP:HK$) ()SIPG(SSHKSellmTP:Rmb) ThepricesinthebodyofthisreportarebasedonthemarketcloseofOctober,渐飞研究报告http:bgpanlvnetOctober,AsiaPacific:ConglomeratesGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchExhibit:Conglomerates:potentialeventscatalystsSource:GoldmanSachsResearchestimatesExhibit:AsiaPacificregionalconglomeratessharepriceperformanceAsofOctober,Source:Bloomberg,GoldmanSachsResearchestimatesPotentialConglomerateTimingPotentialeventcatalystHongKongHutchisonWhampoaHGturnaroundResilientportthroughputMarginimprovementinretailRecoveryinrefiningmarginandprodvolforHuskyMTRCorporationHTaiWaiandNamCheongStationsitetendersupdatesonpropertyrightstobecompensatedforSouthIslandLineandKwunTongExtensioSwirePacific'A'HAcceleratedofficetakeupdrivingfurtherrentalincreaseacrossSwire'sportfolioinCentralandIslandEastWharfHoldingsHExecutionofresidentialpropertypresalesinChinaFurtherretailrentalgrowthatHarbourCityandTimeSquareCheungKongHoldingsHPotentiallandacquisition,eg,winningupcomingMTRCsitetendersCheungKongInfrastructurHPotentialacquisitions,eg,thehighspeedraillineinUK,butitisalsomindfulaboutHutchanditsbondratingWheelockCoHMoreproactivestrategiesinitsHKandSingaporepropertydevelopmentGrouprestructuringunlikelyinneartermJardineMathesonHAstra'sautoandmotorcyclesalegrowthmomentumtodecelerateChinaCITICPacificHFurtherupdatesonSinoironoreprojectsPotentialupsideinsteelpricesCOSCOPacificHFinancialturnaroundofitsnewports,egNansha,PiraeusportsAcceleratedearningsgrowthincontainerleasingChinaMerchantsHPotentialportacquisitioninChinaoroverseasmarketsgivenitsstrongfinancialpositionChinaResourcesHRiseinrawmaterialpricesinbeverageandrentalcostsinretaildivisionsPotentialacquisitionsinfoodorbeverageShanghaiInt'lPortGpHPotentialdilutionfromequityissuancetofundtheacquisitionofYangshanPortMarketcapCompany(US$bn)highlowwkmomosYTDwkmomosYTDHongKongHutchisonWhampoaHKDSwirePacific'A'HKDWharfHoldingsHKDCheungKongHldgsHKDJardineMathesonUSD()()MTRCorporationHKD()()()()CheungKongInfrastructureHKD()()()WheelockCoHKDChinaCITICPacificHKD()()COSCOPacificHKDChinaMerchantsHKD()()()ChinaResourcesHKD()()()ShanghaiInt'lPortGpCNY()()()()()()CCYSharepriceweekSharepriceperformanceAbsolutesharepricesharepricerelativetolocalMSCIIndex()performance()渐飞研究报告http:bgpanlvnetOctober,AsiaPacific:ConglomeratesGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchSummaryofratingandtargetpricechangesDiversepriceperformanceytdHutch,COSCOandCITICtoppicksAsdiscussedinour“YearAhead”reportlastDecember,thesharprallyinsharepriceslastyearhaddrivencompanyvaluationfromtroughtonormalizedlevelsThefocusinwasbottomupidentifyingcompanieswithsustainableearningsgrowthandsectorexposurelessaffectedbypolicyrisksIndeed,theHongKongandChinaconglomeratesunderourcoverageuniverseshaveexhibiteddiversesharepriceperformanceytd,withJardineMathesonandHutchhavingbeenthestrongestoutperformers,whileCITICPacificandCKIunderperformedtheirlocalindexbyandytdrespectively(Exhibit)Lookinginto,webelievestockvaluationsinourcoveragedonotlookexcessiveeventhoughcertainstockshavereachedorareclosetotheiralltimehighsWeexpectfurtherappreciation,justifiedbyimprovingfundamentals,egSwirePacificAfteryearsofunderperformance,achangeofmarketperceptionandimprovingreturnprofilesforHutchandCITICPacificshouldhelpbothstockstorerateoverthenextmonths,inourviewAsdiscussedinourreport“PathtoHK$ifGbecomesselffunding”datedAugth,weseepotentialforHutchtotradeuptoHK$ifHGprovesitselftobeselffundingandgeneratessufficientcashflowtocoveritsinterestexpensesandcapexForCITICPacific,webelievethemarketwillcontinuetofocusonitsexecutionofthesizeableSinoIronOreproject,whichcouldbeamultiyeardriverforitsearningsandreturnsAfterrollingoverourNAVtoandincorporatingthelatestassumptionsofdifferentbusinessdivisions(Exhibit),wereviseourmonthtargetpricesbytoExhibitisasummaryofourrating,targetpricesandearningsestimatechangesAsinpreviousyears,wehaveidentifiedseveralinvestmentthemesandconglomerateswithbetterexposureAbroaderbaseresumptionofconsumerspendinginHongKongHongKongofficeupcycletocontinueOverpessimismaboutChinaportthroughputgrowthUpsideinexpectationRisingsteelpriceonsupplycontrolandenergyrationalizationprogrambygovernmentWeupgradeMTRCfromNeutraltoBuy,WheelockfromSelltoNeutralWhilethemarketfocusesmostlyonMTRC’spropertydevelopmentrights,themajority,ie,ofitsNAVisattributedtoitsrailoperations,stationcommercialandshoppingmalls,whichbenefitfromabroaderbaseresumptionofdomesticspendingWheelock’svaluationnolongerlooksdemandingwithitsexWharfstubvaluetradingatalltimelowMoreproactiveexpansionstrategiesinHKandSingaporepropertymarketsmayhelpthestocktoreratetotradelesslikeapureholdingcompanyovertimeWealsodowngradeJardineMathesonfromNeutraltoSellandexpectthestocktounderperformgivenlittlescopeforfurtherNAVupgrades,especiallyasAstraistradingatasignificantpremiumbothtoitshistoricalaverageandtheIndonesiamarketOurtopBuysareCOSCOPacific,HutchandCITICPacificOurtopSellisJardineMatheson渐飞研究报告http:bgpanlvnetOctober,AsiaPacific:ConglomeratesGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchExhibit:Summaryofratings,targetprices,netassetvalue,andcorerecurringnetprofitchangesSource:Companydata,GoldmanSachsResearchestimatesExhibit:GScoreEPSestimatesandgrowthvsconsensusSource:Companydata,GoldmanSachsResearchestimatesExhibit:SummaryofchangesinkeyassumptionsSource:GoldmanSachsResearchestimatesLastEEPriceTickerCCYOctNewOldNewOldNewOldNewOldUpsideNewOldNewOldNewOldHongKongHutchisonWhampoaHKHKDBuyBuy,,,,,,MTRCorporationHKHKDBuyNeutral,,,,,,SwirePacific'A'HKHKDBuyBuy,,,,,,WharfHoldingsHKHKDNeutralNeutral,,,,,,CheungKongHldgsHKHKDNeutralNeutral,,,,,,CheungKongInfraHKHKDNeutralNeutral,,,,,,WheelockCoHKHKDNeutralSell,,,,,,JardineMathesonJARDSIUSDSellNeutral,,,,,,ChinaCITICPacificHKHKDBuyBuy,,,,,,COSCOPacificHKHKDBuy*Buy*ChinaMerchantsHKHKDNeutralNeutral,,,,,,ChinaResourcesHKHKDNeutralNeutral,,,,,,SIPGSSCNYSellSell,,,,,,*OnourAsiaPacificConvictionBuylistEEE**InmillionsCCY,exceptforCOSCOPacificinUSDmnCorenetprofitexcludingexceptionalitemsexceptforHutchisonandCheungKongTargetdiscmImpliedCorerecurringnetprofits**RatingsNAVpershrtoNAVtargetpriceCompanyccyEEEEEEEEHongKongHutchisonWhampoaHKDMTRCorporationHKD()SwirePacific'A'HKD()WharfHoldingsHKD()CheungKongHldgsHKDCheungKongInfrastructureHKD()WheelockCoHKD()JardineMathesonUSD()ChinaCITICPacificHKD()()COSCOPacificHKD()ChinaMerchantsHKD()ChinaResourcesHKD()ShanghaiInt'lPortGpCNY()GScoreEPSGSvconsensusEPSabove(below)IBESConsensusEPSgrowth()GSyearonyearEPSestimatesEEEEHKprimarypropertymarketpriceHongKongretailrentaltototoHongKongofficerentaltoChinapropertydevelopmentOilpriceassumptionUS$perbarrelHongKongContainerPortChinaContainerPortNewassumptionsOldassumptions渐飞研究报告http:bgpanlvnetOctober,AsiaPacific:ConglomeratesGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearchExhibit:ENAVsensitivitytoHKChinapropertypriceandrentalchangesSource:Companydata,GoldmanSachsResearchestimatesExhibit:WeexpectHutchandCITIC’sROEtoimprovemorethanitspeersROEsummaryofHKChinaconglomeratesunderourcoverage(–E)Source:Companydata,GoldmanSachsResearchestimatesExhibit:ConglomeratesvaluationsummarySource:Companydata,GoldmanSachsResearchestimatesHutchisonWhampoaChginENAVchan

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