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首页 Lester R. Brown:Plan B Rescuing a Planet Under …

Lester R. Brown:Plan B Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Trouble.PDF

Lester R. Brown:Plan B Rescuing…

晒在-拉萨 2010-10-06 评分 0 浏览量 0 0 0 0 暂无简介 简介 举报

简介:本文档为《Lester R. Brown:Plan B Rescuing a Planet Under Stress and a Civilization in Troublepdf》,可适用于工程科技领域,主题内容包含PlanBOTHERNORTONBOOKSBYLESTERRBROWNTheEarthPolicyReaderwithJanetLarsenandB符等。

PlanBOTHERNORTONBOOKSBYLESTERRBROWNTheEarthPolicyReaderwithJanetLarsenandBernieFischlowitzRobertsEcoEconomy:BuildinganEconomyfortheEarthStateoftheWorldthroughannual,withothersVitalSignsthroughannual,withothersBeyondMalthuswithGaryGardnerandBrianHalweilTheWorldWatchReadereditorwithEdAyresToughChoicesWhoWillFeedChinaFullHousewithHalKaneSavingthePlanetwithChristopherFlavinandSandraPostelBuildingaSustainableSocietyRunningonEmptywithColinNormanandChristopherFlavinTheTwentyNinthDayIntheHumanInterestEarthPolicyInstituteisanonprofitenvironmentalresearchorganizationprovidingavisionofanecoeconomyandaroadmaponhowtogetfromheretothereItseekstoreachaglobalconstituencythroughthemediaandtheInternetItsprimarypublicationsareEcoEconomy:BuildinganEconomyfortheEarth,TheEarthPolicyReader,andaseriesoffourpageEcoEconomyUpdatesthatassessprogressinbuildinganecoeconomyAllofthesecanbedownloadedatnochargefromtheEPIWebsiteWebsite:<wwwearthpolicyorg>PLANBRescuingaPlanetUnderStressandaCivilizationinTroubleEARTHPOLICYINSTITUTENEWYORKLONDONW•W•NORTONCOMPANYLesterRBrownToOrvilleLFreeman–OrvilleFreemanwasoneofthemostremarkablepublicservantsofthelastcenturyAWorldWarIIveteranandthreetermgovernoroftheStateofMinnesota,heplacedJohnFKennedy’snameinnominationforthepresidencyattheDemocraticNationalConventioninLosAngelesinThischapterofFreeman’slifeisdescribedindetailinRodneyLeonard’sengagingnewbook,Freeman:TheGovernorYears,–AsSecretaryofAgriculturefromto,FreemanwasoneofthreeKennedycabinetmembers,alongwithDeanRuskandStewartUdall,toservethroughouttheeightyearsoftheKennedyJohnsonadministrationAfterleavingtheDepartment,hewasformanyyearstheCEOofBusinessInternationalMyrelationshipwithOrvilleFreemangoesbacktotheUSDepartmentofAgriculture,whereIservedashisadvisoroninternationalagriculturalpolicyandlaterasAdministratoroftheDepartment’stechnicalassistanceagency,knownthenastheInternationalAgriculturalDevelopmentServiceOurofficialrelationshipquicklyturnedintoaclosepersonalone,ashebecamenotonlyamentor,butafriendOneofthehighlightsofouryearsofworkingtogethercamein,whenwenegotiatedthereformofagriculCopyrightbyEarthPolicyInstituteAllrightsreservedPrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmericaFirstEditionTheEARTHPOLICYINSTITUTEtrademarkisregisteredintheUSPatentandTrademarkOfficeTheviewsexpressedarethoseoftheauthoranddonotnecessarilyrepresentthoseoftheEarthPolicyInstituteofitsdirectors,officers,orstafforofanyfundersThetextofthisbookiscomposedinSabonCompositionbyElizabethDohertymanufacturingbytheMapleVailBookManufacturingGroupISBNx(cloth)(pbk)WWNortonCompany,Inc,FifthAvenue,NewYork,NYwwwwwnortoncomWWNortonCompany,Ltd,CastleHouse,WellsStreet,LondonWTQTThisbookisprintedonrecycledpaperWritingabookofthisscoperequiresalotofhelpfromotherpeopleFirstamongtheseisReahJaniseKauffman,ourindefatigableVicePresident,whosoablymanagestheInstitute,allowingmetoconcentratemyenergiesonresearchShecoordinatesourworldwidenetworkofpublishersandmarketingofpublicationsIndoingthisandinnegotiatingspeakingfeesandbulksalesofourbooks,shehashelpedboostourearnedincometowhereitnowcovershalfofourbudgetAndasifthiswerenotenough,shereviewedthemanuscriptseveraltimes,aidinginitsevolutionJanetLarsen,whoanchorsourresearchprogram,hasprovidedinvaluablesupportIrelyheavilyonherforresearchhelp,assistanceintheanalysis,andjudgmentonhowtopresentinformationInresearchandwriting,sheismyalteregoandmybestcriticVivianaJimenezhasbeenenormouslyhelpfulwithresearch,workingtirelesslytogatherneededinformationwhilealsoprovidingadministrativesupportMillicentJohnson,ourDirectorofPublicationsSales,usesherknowledgeofcustomerservicestomanageourpublicationsdepartment,runningthegamutfrombookprocurementtoorderfulfillmentShealsoservesasourofficequartermasterandassistswithbookkeepingACKNOWLEDGMENTSviPLANBturalpolicyinIndiafollowingashortharvestinducedbyamonsoonfailureThisreformrevitalizedthecountry’sagriculture,enablingIndiatodoubleitswheatharvestinsevenyears,goingfrombeingtheworld’slargestwheatimportertobeingselfsufficientinwheatThuswhenIfoundedtheWorldwatchInstituteinearly,itwasnaturaltoturntoOrvilleFreemantochairtheBoardofDirectorsItcouldnothavebeenabetterchoiceDuringouryearsasChairmanandCEOwehadacloseandextraordinarilyproductiverelationshipOrvilleFreemanwasafootballplayer,playingbackupquarterbackontheUniversityofMinnesota’snationalchampionshipteamaMarinewhowonthePurpleHeartforheroismwhenleadinghisunitontothebeachatBougainvilleIslandandalawyerHehadthedualdistinctionofbeingtheyoungestgovernorinMinnesota’shistory,atage,andthentheyoungestUSSecretaryofAgriculture,atageOnFebruary,,theworldlostagreatpublicservantandIlostalifelongfriendviiiPLANBWe’dliketoespeciallythanktheUnitedNationsPopulationFundforitsgeneroussupportofPlanBWearealsoindebtedtotheCarolyn,GeraldineRDodge,Farview,RichardandRhodaGoldman,WilliamandFloraHewlett,Shenandoah,Summit,andTurnerFoundationsandtotheEducationalFundofAmericaTheirsupportenablesustoprovideanddisseminatethevisionofanecoeconomyEarthPolicyisalsosupportedbyindividualdonors,includingthelateRobertWallaceandhiswifeRaisaScriabine,JunkoEdahiro,andDavidandKatherineMoore(inmemoryoftheirdaughterKate)Weareinspiredbythegenerosityofotherdonors,includingDouglasandDeborahBaker,DavidBlittersdorf,NancyLoomisEric,MaureenHinkle,JamesMcManis,ScottandHellaMcVay,PaulMyersandWelthySoni,PeterSeidel,andMarionWeberIamindebtedtomorethanadozenreviewersofthemanuscript,includingBoardmembersJudyGradwohlandWilliamMansfieldTobyClarkbroughthisdecadesofexperienceasanenvironmentalanalystandadministratortobearonthemanuscript,providingboththebroadstructuralsuggestionsanddetailedcommentarythatmoneycannotbuyReadersareindebtedtohimforraisingthebooktoahigherlevelPeterGoldmark,formanyyearspublisheroftheInternationalHeraldTribune,wasextraordinarilyhelpfulinidentifyingtheprincipalstrengthsandtheweaknessesofthemanuscriptEllenGoldensohn,untilrecentlyeditorofNaturalHistory,providedusefulfeedbackonoverallstructureDouglasandDeborahBakerbothreviewedthemanuscript,helpingmetothinkthroughsomeofthemorecomplextechnicalissuesMaureenKuwanoHinkledrewonheryearsofexperienceworkingonagriculturalissueswiththeEnviAcknowledgmentsixronmentalDefenseFundandtheAudubonSocietytoreviewseveraldraftsofthebookasitevolvedSheprovidedvaluablecommentsandencouragementallalongthewayVlatkaLanday,whovolunteeredtodoresearchontheWorldWarIImobilization,alsoreviewedthemanuscripttwice,providingfeedbackandencouragementJeanMiller,whohelpedtoexpandourinternationalpressdatabaseasavolunteer,alsoreviewedthemanuscript,offeringspecificsuggestionsforimprovingthestructureMythanksalsotoindividualswhowereparticularlyhelpfulinprovidingspecificinformation:ClaudineAholou,LHAllen,Jr,AdamGromis,EdMongan,ErichPica,RetoARuedy,PedroASanchez,andJohnESheehyAsauthorsknow,findinganengagingtitlecanbetryingThisonewasmadeeasyWhenIwasdescribingthebookconcepttoCatherineCameron,ExecutiveDirectoroftheWallaceGlobalFund,shesaid,“ItsoundslikePlanBtome”Thanks,CatherineWearesupportedbyanetworkofdedicatedpublishersforourbooksandEcoEconomyUpdatesinsomelanguagesArabic,Catalan,Chinese,Czech,English,French,Indonesian,Italian,Japanese,Korean,Persian,Polish,Portuguese(inBrazil),Romanian,Russian,Spanish,Swedish,Turkish,andUkrainianTherearethreeeditionsinEnglish(USACanada,UKCommonwealth,andIndia),twoinChinese(mainlandandTaiwan),andtwoinSpanish(SpainandLatinAmerica)ThesetranslationsareoftentheworkofenvironmentallycommittedindividualsInIran,forexample,HamidTaravatiandhiswifeFarzanehBahar,bothmedicaldoctors,areconcernednotonlyaboutthehealthoftheirpatientsbutalsothatoftheearthOurcollaborationbeganyearsagoatWorldwatch,whenHamidbeganAcknowledgmentsxi(Swedish),LiKangmin(Chinese),GianfrancoBologna(Italian),SokiOda(Japanese),EduardoAthayde(Portuguese),JosephRobertson(Spanish),JacquesBougie(French),andPacificCurrents(Russiandistributedthroughitslistserv)ThisbookwouldnotbecompletewereitnotfortheeditingofLindaStarke,aveteraneditorofmybooksLinda’ssurefireediting,insight,andenvironmentalknowledgesharpenedthebookinmanywaysThanksalsotoLizDoherty,whorespondedtoourneedsforaquickdesignandlayouteventhoughshewasstartinganewfulltimejob,andtoRitchPope,whopreparedausefulindexAndfinally,savingthebestforlast,mythankstotheteamatWWNortonCompany:AmyCherry,oureditorLucindaBartley,herassistantAndrewMarasiaandAnnaOler,whoputthebookonafasttrackproductionscheduleIngsuLiu,ArtDirectorforthebookjacketBillRusin,MarketingDirectorandDrakeMcFeely,President,withspecialthanksforhissupportItisadelighttoworkwithsuchatalentedteamLesterBrownxPLANBpublishingStateoftheWorldinIranFarzaneh’stranslationofFullHousewontheMinistryofCulture’sawardforthebesttranslationofaforeignbookInChina,LinZixin,withwhomI’veworkedfornearlyyears,wasresponsibleforpublishingEcoEconomy,personallyleadingtheteamoftranslatorsIamalsogratefultohimforarrangingatriptoInnerMongoliaandGansuprovincesthathelpedmebetterunderstandthepressuresonthelandinChina’snorthwestInJapan,SokiOda,whostartedWorldWatchJapannearlyyearsago,leadsourpublicationeffortsHeisalreadyhardatworkplanningtheoutreacheffortforthereleaseoftheJapaneseeditionofPlanBJunkoEdahiro,myinterpreterinJapan,hasalsobeenextraordinarilyhelpfulInadditiontoorganizingJapanforSustainability,shehasputtogetherseveralhighlysuccessfulfundraisersinJapanfortheEarthPolicyInstituteGianfrancoBologna,withwhomI’veworkedfornearlyyears,arrangesforthepublishingofourbooksinItalianAsheadofWorldWildlifeFundItaly,heisuniquelypositionedtoassistusinthiseffortInBrazil,EduardoAthaydeisresponsiblefortranslatingourbooksintoPortuguese,wherehehasdoneanexcellentjoboforganizingfastpacedpromotionaltoursinthatcountry’smajorcitiesAndinRomania,PresidentIonIliescu,whostartedpublishingourbookssomeyearsagowhenheheadedEdituraTehnica,personallyassumesresponsibilityforgettingourbooksoutquicklyinRomanianAsmallorganizationlikeEPIreliesonthegoodwillanddedicationofmanypeopleAgrowingnumberofindividualsandorganizationsarepostingourEcoEconomyUpdatesontheirwebsitesWearegratefultoall,andIespeciallythanktheindividualsorgroupswhotranslateandpostthem,includingLeifOhlssonAcknowledgmentsviiPrefacexvAPlanetUnderStressEcologicalBillsComingDueFarmersFacingTwoNewChallengesEcologicalMeltdowninChinaFood:ANationalSecurityIssueTheCaseforPlanBIACIVILIZATIONINTROUBLEEmergingWaterShortagesFallingWaterTablesRiversRunningDryFarmersLosingtoCitiesScarcityCrossingNationalBordersAFoodBubbleEconomyErodingSoilsandShrinkingGrainlandSoilErosion:WindandWaterAdvancingDesertsCropsandCarsCompeteforLandCONTENTSContentsxiiiTheLandHungrySoybeanGrainlandGainsandLossesSpreadingLandHungerRisingTemperaturesandRisingSeasTheTemperatureRecordTheYieldEffectReservoirsintheSkyMeltingIceandRisingSeasMoreDestructiveStormsSubsidizingClimateChangeOurSociallyDividedWorldLifeExpectancy:ASeminalIndicatorTheEffectsoftheHIVEpidemicPovertyandHungerPovertyandtheBurdenofDiseaseTheHighCostofIlliteracyPlanA:BusinessasUsualAcceleratingEnvironmentalDeclineSpreadingHunger,GrowingUnrestStreamsofEnvironmentalRefugeesPopulationGrowthandPoliticalConflictPlanA:OverwhelmedbyProblemsIITHERESPONSEPLANBRaisingWaterProductivityAdoptingRealisticPricesRaisingIrrigationWaterProductivityRainwaterHarvestingRaisingNonfarmWaterProductivityAGlobalFullCourtPressxivPLANBRaisingLandProductivityRethinkingLandProductivityMultipleCroppingRaisingProteinEfficiencyASecondHarvestSavingSoilandCroplandRestoringtheEarthCuttingCarbonEmissionsinHalfRaisingEnergyProductivityHarnessingtheWindConvertingSunlightintoElectricityEnergyfromtheEarthBuildingtheHydrogenEconomyCuttingCarbonEmissionsRespondingtotheSocialChallengeStabilizingPopulationUniversalBasicEducationCurbingtheHIVEpidemicHealthforAllSchoolLunchesforthePoorBreakingOutIII:THEONLYOPTIONPlanB:RisingtotheChallengeDeflatingtheBubbleAWartimeMobilizationCreatinganHonestMarketShiftingTaxesShiftingSubsidiesACalltoGreatnessNotesIndexTwoyearsagoIwroteabookentitledEcoEconomy:BuildinganEconomyfortheEarth,whicharguedthattheenvironmentwasnotpartoftheeconomy,asmanycorporateplannersandeconomistsbelieve,butinsteadthattheeconomywaspartoftheenvironmentIfweacceptthislatterview,Iwrote,itfollowsthattheeconomymustbedesignedsothatitiscompatiblewiththeecosystemofwhichitisapartEcoEconomydescribedthisenvironmentallycompatibleeconomy,notingthatwenowhavethetechnologiestobuilditAlmosteverythingweneedtodotobuildthisneweconomy,Inoted,isnowbeingdonebyoneormorecountriesintheworldPlanBnotonlyarguesfurtherfortherestructuringoftheeconomy,itpointsoutwhythisneedstobedoneatwartimespeedTimeisrunningoutWhereashistoricallywelivedofftheinterestgeneratedbytheearth’snaturalcapitalassets,wearenowconsumingthoseassetsthemselvesWehavebuiltanenvironmentalbubbleeconomy,onewhereeconomicoutputisartificiallyinflatedbyoverconsumptionoftheearth’snaturalassetsThechallengetodayistodeflatethebubblebeforeitburstsThemostvulnerableeconomicsectormaybefood,PREFACExviPLANBwherethebubbleismostobviousTheoverpumpingofanaquifertoexpandfoodproductionintheshortrunalmostguaranteesadropinproductioninthelongrunAlthoughgrainproductionhasdeclinedinsomesmallercountries,itisnowdeclininginChinaOverthelastfiveyears,China’sgrainharvesthasdroppedfrommilliontomilliontonsadropequaltothegrainharvestofCanadaThusfarChinahasbeencoveringitsshortfallbydrawingdownstocks,butitcandosoforonlyanotheryearortwoWhenChinaenterstheworldgrainmarketformassiveimports,itwillputheavypressureonexportablegrainsuppliesWewillnothavetoreadaboutthisinthenewspapersWewillseetheeffectsatthesupermarketcheckoutcounterRisingfoodpricesmaybethefirstglobaleconomicindicatortosignalserioustroublebetweenus,nowbillion,andtheearth’secosystemThescopeofPlanBhasbeenlimitedsothatitwillbeshortenoughtobereadbybusypeopleThereis,forexample,nochapteronbiologicaldiversityYettheprincipalpolicyrecommendationsstabilizingpopulationandstabilizingclimatearecentraltoprotectingthediversityoflifeThetraditionalapproachofprotectingbiologicaldiversitybyfencingofflandasparksorpreserves,asvaluableasthatis,isnotenoughIfwecannotstabilizepopulationandifwecannotstabilizeclimate,thereisnotanecosystemonearthwecansaveNordoIdealwithwaterpollutioninanydetailIhaveconcentratedontheemergenceofwaterscarcityasadefiningissueofthisnewcenturyTotheextentthatwaterpollutionisreducingtheusablesupplyofwater,itisfurtherexacerbatingemergingscarcityAndIhavenotincludedenvironmentaleducationMygoodfriendRayAnderson,CEOofInterface,urgedthatIpromoteenvironmentaleducation,especiallyinbusinessschoolsRayisrightWedesperatelyneedtoproPrefacexviiduceagenerationofenvironmentallyliteratebusinessandfinancialleadersfortomorrow,butitismyhopethattoday’sbusinessleaderswillhearthecalltogreatnessoutlinedinPlanBandrespondtoitAndfinally,myapologiesforusingmaterialthatIpublishedearlierinarticles,EcoEconomyUpdates,andeveninmylasttwobooksIthinkitwasKenGalbraithwhosaid,“Selfplagiarismisanindulgenceofauthorsthatpublishersoughtnottotolerate”ItistimetoredefinesecurityIronically,onSeptember,,IwasinNewYorktogivealuncheontalkonEcoEconomytothescienceandenvironmentstaffoftheNewYorkTimesNeedlesstosay,thattalkwasneverdeliveredTheshiftinattentionfromenvironmentalissuestoterrorismthatbeganonthatfatefuldatecontinuestothisdayThebasicpointofPlanBisthatourprincipalthreatsarenowmoreenvironmentalthanmilitaryTerroristsareathreatButthedestructionwroughtbyterroristsislikelytobesmallcomparedwiththeworldwidesufferingiftheenvironmentalbubbleeconomycollapsesAnd,finally,IdonothavethecredentialsforwritingthisbookNordoIknowanyonewhodoesButsomeonehadtogiveitatryLesterRBrownEarthPolicyInstituteConnecticutAve,NW,SuiteWashington,DCPhone:()Fax:()Email:epiearthpolicyorgWebsite:wwwearthpolicyorgMayPlanBAsworldpopulationhasdoubledandastheglobaleconomyhasexpandedsevenfoldoverthelasthalfcentury,ourclaimsontheearthhavebecomeexcessiveWeareaskingmoreoftheearththanitcangiveonanongoingbasis,creatingabubbleeconomyWearecuttingtreesfasterthantheycanregenerate,overgrazingrangelandsandconvertingthemintodeserts,overpumpingaquifers,anddrainingriversdryOnourcropland,soilerosionexceedsnewsoilformation,slowlydeprivingthesoilofitsinherentfertilityWearetakingfishfromtheoceanfasterthantheycanreproduceWearereleasingcarbondioxide(CO)intotheat

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