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首页 Lester R. Brown:PLAN B 4.0

Lester R. Brown:PLAN B 4.0.pdf

Lester R. Brown:PLAN B 4.0

晒在-拉萨 2010-10-06 评分 0 浏览量 0 0 0 0 暂无简介 简介 举报

简介:本文档为《Lester R. Brown:PLAN B 4.0pdf》,可适用于工程科技领域,主题内容包含“LesterBrowntellsushowtobuildamorejustworldandsavetheplanetinapractical,st符等。

“LesterBrowntellsushowtobuildamorejustworldandsavetheplanetinapractical,straightforwardwayWeshouldallheedhisadvice”PresidentBillClinton“afarreachingthinker”USNewsWorldReport“It’sexcitingamasterpiece!”TedTurner“Brown’sabilitytomakeacomplicatedsubjectaccessibletothegeneralreaderisremarkable”KatherineSalant,WashingtonPost“IftheNobelPeacePrizehadbeenextendedtoathirdrecipient,thelogicalcandidatewouldhavebeenLesterBrown”EdwardOWilson“Brownisimpassionedandconvincingwhentalkingabouttheworld’sillsandwhatheconsidersthefourgreatgoalstorestoringcivilization’sequilibrium”AprilStreeter,TreeHuggercom“Inthisimpressivelyresearchedmanifestoforchange,Brownbluntlysetsoutthechallengesandoffersanachievableroadmapforsolvingtheclimatechangecrisis”TheGuardian“Intacklingahostofpressingissuesinasinglebook,PlanBmakesforaneyeopeningread”TimesHigherEducationSupplement“ThebestbigpicturesummaryofourenvironmentalsituationboththeproblemsandthesolutionsI’veeverread”Grist“Agreatbookwhichshouldwakeuphumankind!”KlausSchwab,WorldEconomicForum“LesterRBrown,oneoftheworld’spreeminentecoeconomistshasasolutionfordealingwiththethreatPlansmustbeperiodicallyrevisedandrefined,whichBrownhasdonewithinsightandforesightinthisvolume”OdePraiseforPlanBcontinued“ahighlyreadableandauthoritativeaccountoftheproblemswefacefromglobalwarmingtoshrinkingwaterresources,fisheries,forests,etcThepictureisveryfrighteningButthebookalsoprovidesawayforward”ClareShort,BritishMemberofParliament“LesterRBrowngivesconcise,butveryinformative,summariesofwhatheregardsasthekeyissuesfacingcivilizationasaconsequenceofthestressweputonourenvironmentavaluablecontributiontotheongoingdebate”TheEcologist“Anenormousachievementacomprehensiveguidetowhat’sgoingwrongwithearth’slifesupportsystemandhowtofixit”GrinningPlanet“PlanBhasthreeparts:restructuringtheglobaleconomy,workingtoeradicatepovertyandreversingenvironmentaldestructionTallorders,tobesure:butPlanBisherethoughtfullylaidouttoachievetheseemingimpossibleandwithanunderstandingofworldtrendsandculturestoo”TheMidwestBookReview“LesterRBrownoffersanattractivestcenturyalternativetotheunacceptablebusinessasusualpaththatwehavebeenfollowingwithregardtotheenvironment(PlanA),whichisleadingusto‘economicdeclineandcollapse’”ThomasFMalone,AmericanScientist“Brown’soverallactionplanisbothcomprehensiveandcompelling”CarolineLucas,Resurgence“Agreatbookaboutwaystoimprovetheenvironmentandsustaineconomicprogress”StPetersburgTimes“PlanBisagreatwealthofinformationontheenvironmentunequaledinanyothersourceofwhichIamaware”WalterYoungquist,authorofGeoDestinies“Beautifullywrittenandunimpeachablywellinformed”RossGelbspan,authorofTheHeatIsOn“Thebestsinglevolumeonsavingtheearth,period”GeoffreyHolland,authorofTheHydrogenAgePLANBOTHERNORTONBOOKSBYLESTERRBROWNPlanB:MobilizingtoSaveCivilizationPlanB:RescuingaPlanetUnderStressandaCivilizationinTroubleOutgrowingtheEarth:TheFoodSecurityChallengeinanAgeofFallingWaterTablesandRisingTemperaturesPlanB:RescuingaPlanetUnderStressandaCivilizationinTroubleTheEarthPolicyReaderwithJanetLarsenandBernieFischlowitzRobertsEcoEconomy:BuildinganEconomyfortheEarthStateoftheWorldthroughannual,withothersVitalSignsthroughannual,withothersBeyondMalthuswithGaryGardnerandBrianHalweilTheWorldWatchReadereditorwithEdAyresToughChoicesWhoWillFeedChinaFullHousewithHalKaneSavingthePlanetwithChristopherFlavinandSandraPostelBuildingaSustainableSocietyRunningonEmptywithColinNormanandChristopherFlavinTheTwentyNinthDayIntheHumanInterestEarthPolicyInstituteisanonprofitenvironmentalresearchorganizationprovidingaplanforbuildingasustainablefutureInadditiontothePlanBseries,theInstituteissuesfourpagePlanBUpdatesthatassessprogressinimplementingPlanBAlloftheseplusadditionaldataandgraphscanbedownloadedatnochargefromtheEPIWebsiteWebsite:wwwearthpolicyorgPLANBMobilizingtoSaveCivilizationEARTHPOLICYINSTITUTENEWYORKLONDONW•W•NORTONCOMPANYLesterRBrownPrefacexiSellingOurFutureFood:TheWeakLinkTheEmergingPoliticsofFoodScarcityOurGlobalPonziEconomyMountingStresses,FailingStatesPlanBAPlantoSaveCivilizationITHECHALLENGESPopulationPressure:LandandWaterCivilization’sFoundationErodingWaterTablesFallingFarmersLosingWatertoCitiesLandandWaterConflictsCarsandPeopleCompeteforGrainTheRisingTideofEnvironmentalRefugeesClimateChangeandtheEnergyTransitionRisingTemperatureandItsEffectsMeltingIce,RisingSeasMeltingGlaciers,ShrinkingHarvestsRisingTemperatures,FallingYieldsTheDeclineofOilandCoalAChallengeWithoutPrecedentIITHERESPONSEStabilizingClimate:AnEnergyEfficiencyRevolutionARevolutioninLightingTechnologyEnergyEfficientAppliancesZeroCarbonBuildingsCopyrightbyEarthPolicyInstituteAllrightsreservedPrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmericaFirstEditionTheEARTHPOLICYINSTITUTEtrademarkisregisteredintheUSPatentandTrademarkOfficeTheviewsexpressedarethoseoftheauthoranddonotnecessarilyrepresentthoseoftheEarthPolicyInstituteofitsdirectors,officers,orstafforofanyfundersThetextofthisbookiscomposedinSabonCompositionbyElizabethDohertymanufacturingbyCourierWestfordISBN(cloth)(pbk)WWNortonCompany,Inc,FifthAvenue,NewYork,NYwwwwwnortoncomWWNortonCompany,Ltd,CastleHouse,WellsStreet,LondonWTQTThisbookisprintedonrecycledpaperContentsContentsixTheLocalizationofAgricultureStrategicReductionsinDemandActiononManyFrontsIIITHEGREATMOBILIZATIONCanWeMobilizeFastEnoughShiftingTaxesandSubsidiesCoal:TheBeginningoftheEndStabilizingClimateThreeModelsofSocialChangeAWartimeMobilizationMobilizingtoSaveCivilizationWhatYouandICanDoNotesIndexAcknowledgmentsAbouttheAuthorviiiContentsElectrifyingtheTransportSystemANewMaterialsEconomySmarterGrids,Appliances,andConsumersTheEnergySavingsPotentialStabilizingClimate:ShiftingtoRenewableEnergyTurningtotheWindSolarCellsandThermalCollectorsEnergyfromtheEarthPlantBasedSourcesofEnergyHydropower:Rivers,Tides,andWavesTheWorldEnergyEconomyofDesigningCitiesforPeopleTheEcologyofCitiesRedesigningUrbanTransportTheReturnofBicyclesReducingUrbanWaterUseFarmingintheCityUpgradingSquatterSettlementsCitiesforPeopleEradicatingPovertyandStabilizingPopulationEducatingEveryoneTowardaHealthyFutureStabilizingPopulationRescuingFailingStatesAPovertyEradicationAgendaandBudgetRestoringtheEarthProtectingandRestoringForestsPlantingTreestoSequesterCarbonConservingandRebuildingSoilsRegeneratingFisheriesProtectingPlantandAnimalDiversityTheEarthRestorationBudgetFeedingEightBillionPeopleWellRaisingLandProductivityRaisingWaterProductivityProducingProteinMoreEfficientlySeveralmonthsagoIwasreadinganarticleinNewsweekonclimateandenergywhenalinejumpedoffthepage:“Businessasusualhasstartedtoreadliketheendoftheworld”Althoughthisconclusionmaysurprisemany,itwillnotsurprisethescientistswhotrackglobalenvironmentaltrendssuchasdeforestation,soilerosion,fallingwatertables,andrisingtemperatureForsometimetheyhavebeensayingthatifthesetrendscontinuewewillbeintroubleWhatwasnotclearwaswhatformthetroublewouldtakeItlooksnowasthoughfoodistheweaklink,justasitwasformanyearliercivilizationsWeareenteringanewfoodera,onemarkedbyhigherfoodprices,rapidlygrowingnumbersofhungrypeople,andanintensifyingcompetitionforlandandwaterresourcesthathasnowcrossednationalboundariesasfoodimportingcountriestrytobuyorleasevasttractsoflandinothercountriesUnlikeearliergrainpricehikesthatwerecausedbysingulareventsadroughtintheSovietUnionoramonsoonfailureinIndiaandweretypicallyremediedbythenextharvest,thisrecentriseistrenddrivenAmongthetrendsresponsiblearepopulationgrowth,fallingwatertables,risingtemperature,icemelting,andtheuseofgraintoproducefuelforcarsIndecadespast,whengrainpricesclimbed,theUSDepartmentofAgriculturesimplyreturnedsomecroplandidledunderfarmprogramstoproduction,butnowthatlandisallinuseSuddenly,foodsecurityhasbecomeahighlycomplexissuePrefacePrefacexiiixiiPrefaceEnergypolicymayaffectfuturefoodsecuritymorethanagriculturalpolicyEradicatinghungermaydependmoreonthesuccessoffamilyplannersthanthatoffarmersRaisingwaterproductivitymaycontributemoretofuturefoodsecuritythanexpandingtheirrigationwatersupplywouldInhisbookTheCollapseofComplexSocieties,JosephTainterobservesthatcivilizationsbecomeprogressivelymorecomplexastheyevolveuntileventuallytheycannotmanagethecomplexityIwasremindedofthisasIwatchedCongresswrestlingwiththeclimatebill,whittlingawayatitsgoalsasthisbookwasgoingtopressInternationalinstitutionsarealsowrestlingwithcomplexityAtthiswriting,alleyesareontheupcomingCopenhagenclimateconferenceinearlyDecemberFrommyvantagepoint,internationallynegotiatedclimateagreementsarefastbecomingobsoletefortworeasonsFirst,sincenogovernmentwantstoconcedetoomuchcomparedwithothergovernments,thenegotiatedgoalsforcuttingcarbonemissionswillalmostcertainlybeminimalist,notremotelyapproachingtheboldcutsthatareneededAndsecond,sinceittakesyearstonegotiateandratifytheseagreements,wemaysimplyrunoutoftimeThisisnottosaythatweshouldnotparticipateinthenegotiationsandworkhardtogetthebestpossibleresultButweshouldnotrelyontheseagreementstosavecivilizationSomeofthemostimpressiveclimatestabilizationadvances,suchasthepowerfulUSgrassrootsmovementthathasledtoadefactomoratoriumonnewcoalfiredpowerplants,hadlittletodowithinternationalnegotiationsAtnopointdidtheleadersofthismovementsaythattheywantedtobannewcoalfiredpowerplantsonlyifEuropedoes,ifChinadoes,oriftherestoftheworlddoesTheymovedaheadunilaterallyknowingthatiftheUnitedStatesdoesnotquicklycutcarbonemissions,theworldwillbeintroubleWeareinaracebetweenpoliticaltippingpointsandnaturaltippingpointsCanwecutcarbonemissionsfastenoughtosavetheGreenlandicesheetandavoidtheresultingriseinsealevelCanweclosecoalfiredpowerplantsfastenoughtosavetheglaciersintheHimalayasandontheTibetanPlateau,theicemeltofwhichsustainsthemajorriversandirrigationsystemsofAsiaduringthedryseasonCanwestabilizepopulationbyreducingfertilitybeforenaturetakesoverandstabilizesournumbersbyraisingmortalityOntheclimatefront,everythingseemstobemovingfasterOnlyafewyearsagosummerseaiceintheArcticSeawasshrinking,butitwasprojectedtolastforseveraldecadesThemostrecentreportsindicatethatitcoulddisappearinamatterofyearsOnlyafewyearshavepassedsincethemostrecentreportbytheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC),butalreadytheriseincarbondioxideemissions,theriseintemperature,andtheriseinsealevelareallmovingfasterthaneventheIPCC’sworstcasescenarioThegoodnewsisthattheshifttorenewableenergyisoccurringatarateandonascalethatwecouldnotimagineeventwoyearsagoConsiderwhatishappeninginTexasThe,megawattsofwindgeneratingcapacityinoperation,the,megawattsunderconstruction,andahugeamountindevelopmentwillgiveitover,megawattsofwindgeneratingcapacity(thinkcoalfiredpowerplants)Thiswillmorethansatisfytheresidentialneedsofthestate’smillionpeopleChina,withitsWindBaseprogram,isworkingonsixwindfarmmegacomplexeswithatotalgeneratingcapacityof,megawattsAndthisisinadditiontothemanysmallerwindfarmsalreadyinoperationandunderconstructionMostrecently,aconsortiumofEuropeancorporationsandinvestmentbankshasannouncedaproposaltodevelopamassiveamountofsolarthermalgeneratingcapacityinNorthAfrica,muchofitforexporttoEuropeIntotal,itcouldeasilyexceed,megawattsroughlythreetimestheelectricalgeneratingcapacityofFranceAndwecouldcitemanymoreexamplesTheenergytransitionfromfossilfuelstorenewablesourcesofenergyismovingmuchfasterthanmostpeoplerealizeIntheUnitedStates,forexample,generatingcapacityforwindincreasedby,megawattsin,whilethatfromcoalincreasedbyonly,megawattsThequestionwefaceisnotwhatweneedtodo,becausethatseemsrathercleartothosewhoareanalyzingtheglobalsituationThechallengeishowtodoitinthetimeavailableUnforxivPrefacetunatelywedon’tknowhowmuchtimeremainsNatureisthetimekeeperbutwecannotseetheclockPlanBisambitioussimplybecausethisiswhatitisgoingtotaketoturnthingsaroundWillitbedifficultNoquestionArethestakeshighNoquestionThethinkingthatgotusintothismessisnotlikelytogetusoutWeneedanewmindsetLetmeparaphraseacommentbyenvironmentalistPaulHawkeninacollegecommencementaddressInrecognizingtheenormityofthechallengefacingus,hesaid:FirstweneedtodecidewhatneedstobedoneThenwedoitAndthenweaskifitispossibleLesterRBrownJulyEarthPolicyInstituteConnecticutAveNWSuiteWashington,DCPhone:()Fax:()Email:epiearthpolicyorgWebsite:wwwearthpolicyorgThisbookcanbedownloadedwithoutchargefromourWebsitePermissionforreprintingorexcerptingportionsofthemanuscriptcanbeobtainedfromReahJaniseKauffmanatEarthPolicyInstituteForadditionalinformationonthetopicsdiscussedinthisbook,seewwwearthpolicyorgPLANBFromtimetotimeIgobackandreadaboutearliercivilizationsthatdeclinedandcollapsed,tryingtounderstandthereasonsfortheirdemiseMoreoftenthannotshrinkingfoodsupplieswereresponsibleFortheSumerians,risingsaltlevelsinthesoiltheresultofaflawintheirirrigationsystembroughtdownwheatandbarleyyieldsandeventuallythecivilizationitselfFortheMayans,soilerosionexacerbatedbyaseriesofintensedroughtsapparentlyunderminedtheirfoodsupplyandtheircivilizationForotherearlycivilizationsthatcollapsed,itwasoftensoilerosionandtheresultingshrinkageinharveststhatledtotheirdeclineDoesourcivilizationfaceasimilarfateUntilrecentlyitdidnotseempossibleIresistedtheideathatfoodshortagescouldalsobringdownourearlytwentyfirstcenturyglobalcivilizationButourcontinuingfailuretoreversetheenvironmentaltrendsthatareunderminingtheworldfoodeconomyforcesmetoconcludethatifwecontinuewithbusinessasusualsuchacollapseisnotonlypossiblebutlikelyThehistoricgrainpriceclimbinthelastfewyearsunderlinesSellingOurFutureOnthesupplyside,severalenvironmentalandresourcetrendsaremakingitmoredifficulttoexpandfoodproductionfastenoughAmongtheongoingonesaresoilerosion,aquiferdepletion,cropshrinkingheatwaves,meltingicesheetsandrisingsealevel,andthemeltingofthemountainglaciersthatfeedmajorriversandirrigationsystemsInaddition,threeresourcetrendsareaffectingourfoodsupply:thelossofcroplandtononfarmuses,thediversionofirrigationwatertocities,andthecomingreductioninoilsuppliesThefirsttrendofconcernispopulationgrowthEachyeartherearemillionmorepeopleatthedinnertableUnfortunately,theoverwhelmingmajorityoftheseindividualsarebeingaddedincountrieswheresoilsareeroding,watertablesarefalling,andirrigationwellsaregoingdryIfwecannotgetthebrakesonpopulationgrowth,wemaynotbeabletoeradicatehungerEvenasournumbersaremultiplying,somebillionpeoplearetryingtomoveupthefoodchain,consumingmoregrainintensivelivestockproductsAtthetopofthefoodchainrankingaretheUnitedStatesandCanada,wherepeopleconsumeonaveragekilogramsofgrainperyear,mostofitindirectlyasbeef,pork,poultry,milk,andeggsNearthebottomofthisrankingisIndia,wherepeoplehavelessthankilogramsofgraineach,andthusmustconsumenearlyallofitdirectly,leavinglittleforconversionintoanimalproteinBeyondthis,theownersoftheworld’smillionautomobileswanttomaintaintheirmobility,andmostarenotparticularlyconcernedaboutwhethertheirfuelcomesfromanoilwelloracornfieldTheorgyofinvestmentinethanolfueldistilleriesthatfollowedthesurgeinUSgaspricesto$agallonafterHurricaneKatrinaraisedtheannualgrowthinworldgrainconsumptionfromroughlymilliontonsperyeartomorethanmilliontonsinbothand,creatinganepiccompetitionbetweencarsandpeopleforgrainTurningtothesupplysideconstraints,soilerosioniscurrentlyloweringtheinherentproductivityofsomepercentoftheworld’scroplandInsomecountries,suchasLesothoandMongolia,ithasreducedgrainproductionbyhalformoreoverthelastthreedecadesKazakhstan,thesiteoftheSovietVirginLandsprojectahalfcenturyago,hasabandonedpercentofitsgrainlandsinceVastduststormscomingoutofsubSellingOurFuturethegravityofthesituationFrommidtomid,worldpricesofwheat,rice,corn,andsoybeansroughlytripled,reachinghistorichighsItwasnotuntiltheglobaleconomiccrisisbeginninginthatgrainpricesrecededsomewhatButeventhentheywerestillwellabovethehistoricallevelTheworldhasexperiencedseveralgrainpricesurgesoverthelasthalfcentury,butnonelikethisTheseearliertrendswereeventdrivenamonsoonfailureinIndia,aseveredroughtintheSovietUnion,oracropshrinkingheatwaveintheUSMidwestThepricesurgesweretemporary,causedbyweatherrelatedeventsthatwereusuallyremediedbythenextharvestTherecord–surgein

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