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首页 Lester R. Brown:PLAN B 3.0 Mobilizing to Save Ci…

Lester R. Brown:PLAN B 3.0 Mobilizing to Save Civilization.pdf

Lester R. Brown:PLAN B 3.0 Mobil…

晒在-拉萨 2010-10-06 评分 0 浏览量 0 0 0 0 暂无简介 简介 举报

简介:本文档为《Lester R. Brown:PLAN B 3.0 Mobilizing to Save Civilizationpdf》,可适用于工程科技领域,主题内容包含“LesterBrowntellsushowtobuildamorejustworldandsavetheplanetinapractical,st符等。

“LesterBrowntellsushowtobuildamorejustworldandsavetheplanetinapractical,straightforwardwayWeshouldallheedhisadvice”PresidentBillClinton“afarreachingthinker”USNewsWorldReport“It’sexcitingamasterpiece!”TedTurner“Intacklingahostofpressingissuesinasinglebook,PlanBmakesforaneyeopeningread”TimesHigherEducationSupplement“LesterBrownshouldreceiveaNobelPeacePrizeforhisnewbook”TheHeraldMexico“Agreatbookwhichshouldwakeuphumankind!”KlausSchwab,WorldEconomicForum“LesterRBrown,oneoftheworld’spreeminentecoeconomistshasasolutionfordealingwiththethreatPlansmustbeperiodicallyrevisedandrefined,whichBrownhasdonewithinsightandforesightinthisvolume”Ode“ahighlyreadableandauthoritativeaccountoftheproblemswefacefromglobalwarmingtoshrinkingwaterresources,fisheries,forests,etcThepictureisveryfrighteningButthebookalsoprovidesawayforward”ClareShort,BritishMemberofParliament“LesterRBrowngivesconcise,butveryinformative,summariesofwhatheregardsasthekeyissuesfacingcivilizationasPraiseforPlanBcontinuedaconsequenceofthestressweputonourenvironmentavaluablecontributiontotheongoingdebate”TheEcologist“Anenormousachievementacomprehensiveguidetowhat’sgoingwrongwithearth’slifesupportsystemandhowtofixit”GrinningPlanet“PlanBhasthreeparts:restructuringtheglobaleconomy,workingtoeradicatepovertyandreversingenvironmentaldestructionTallorders,tobesure:butPlanBisherethoughtfullylaidouttoachievetheseemingimpossibleandwithanunderstandingofworldtrendsandculturestoo”TheMidwestBookReview“ThebestbigpicturesummaryofourenvironmentalsituationboththeproblemsandthesolutionsI’veeverread”Grist“LesterRBrown…offersanattractivestcenturyalternativetotheunacceptablebusinessasusualpaththatwehavebeenfollowingwithregardtotheenvironment(PlanA),whichisleadingusto‘economicdeclineandcollapse’”ThomasFMalone,AmericanScientist“Brown’soverallactionplanisbothcomprehensiveandcompelling”CarolineLucas,Resurgence“ThisbookisanexcellentupdatetotheeditionofPlanBandavaluableresourceforunderstandingthechallengesfacingallpeopleonEarthHighlyrecommended”SJMartin,Choice“Agreatbookaboutwaystoimprovetheenvironmentandsustaineconomicprogress”StPetersburgTimesPLANBOTHERNORTONBOOKSBYLESTERRBROWNPlanB:RescuingaPlanetUnderStressandaCivilizationinTroubleOutgrowingtheEarth:TheFoodSecurityChallengeinanAgeofFallingWaterTablesandRisingTemperaturesPlanB:RescuingaPlanetUnderStressandaCivilizationinTroubleTheEarthPolicyReaderwithJanetLarsenandBernieFischlowitzRobertsEcoEconomy:BuildinganEconomyfortheEarthStateoftheWorldthroughannual,withothersVitalSignsthroughannual,withothersBeyondMalthuswithGaryGardnerandBrianHalweilTheWorldWatchReadereditorwithEdAyresToughChoicesWhoWillFeedChinaFullHousewithHalKaneSavingthePlanetwithChristopherFlavinandSandraPostelBuildingaSustainableSocietyRunningonEmptywithColinNormanandChristopherFlavinTheTwentyNinthDayIntheHumanInterestEarthPolicyInstituteisanonprofitenvironmentalresearchorganizationprovidingaplanforbuildingasustainablefutureItseekstoreachaglobalconstituencythroughthemediaandtheInternetInadditiontothePlanBseries,theInstituteissuesfourpagePlanBUpdatesthatassessprogressinimplementingPlanBAllofthesecanbedownloadedatnochargefromtheEPIWebsiteWebsite:wwwearthpolicyorgPLANBMobilizingtoSaveCivilizationEARTHPOLICYINSTITUTENEWYORKLONDONW•W•NORTONCOMPANYLesterRBrownPrefacexiEnteringaNewWorldAMassiveMarketFailureEnvironmentandCivilizationChina:WhytheExistingEconomicModelWillFailMountingStresses,FailingStatesACivilizationalTippingPointPlanBAPlanofHopeIACIVILIZATIONINTROUBLEDeterioratingOilandFoodSecurityTheComingDeclineofOilTheOilIntensityofFoodTheChangingFoodProspectCarsandPeopleCompeteforCropsTheWorldBeyondPeakOilFoodInsecurityandFailingStatesRisingTemperaturesandRisingSeasRisingTemperatureandItsEffectsTheCropYieldEffectReservoirsintheSkyMeltingIceandRisingSeasMoreDestructiveStormsCuttingCarbonPercentbyEmergingWaterShortagesWaterTablesFallingRiversRunningDryLakesDisappearingFarmersLosingtoCitiesCopyrightbyEarthPolicyInstituteAllrightsreservedPrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmericaFirstEditionTheEARTHPOLICYINSTITUTEtrademarkisregisteredintheUSPatentandTrademarkOfficeTheviewsexpressedarethoseoftheauthoranddonotnecessarilyrepresentthoseoftheEarthPolicyInstituteofitsdirectors,officers,orstafforofanyfundersThetextofthisbookiscomposedinSabonCompositionbyElizabethDohertymanufacturingbytheMapleVailBookManufacturingGroupISBN(cloth)(pbk)WWNortonCompany,Inc,FifthAvenue,NewYork,NYwwwwwnortoncomWWNortonCompany,Ltd,CastleHouse,WellsStreet,LondonWTQTThisbookisprintedonrecycledpaperContentsContentsixDesigningCitiesforPeopleTheEcologyofCitiesRedesigningUrbanTransportReducingUrbanWaterUseFarmingintheCityUpgradingSquatterSettlementsCitiesforPeopleRaisingEnergyEfficiencyBanningtheBulbEnergyEfficientAppliancesMoreEfficientBuildingsRestructuringtheTransportSystemANewMaterialsEconomyTheEnergySavingsPotentialTurningtoRenewableEnergyHarnessingtheWindWindPoweredPluginHybridCarsSolarCellsandCollectorsEnergyfromtheEarthPlantBasedSourcesofEnergyRiver,Tidal,andWavePowerTheWorldEnergyEconomyofIIIANEXCITINGNEWOPTIONTheGreatMobilizationShiftingTaxesandSubsidiesSummingUpClimateStabilizationMeasuresAResponsetoFailingStatesAWartimeMobilizationMobilizingtoSaveCivilizationWhatYouandICanDoNotesIndexAcknowledgementsAbouttheAuthorviiiContentsScarcityCrossingNationalBordersWaterScarcityYieldsPoliticalStressesNaturalSystemsUnderStressShrinkingForests:TheManyCostsLosingSoilFromGrasslandtoDesertAdvancingDesertsCollapsingFisheriesDisappearingPlantsandAnimalsEarlySignsofDeclineOurSociallyDividedWorldHealthChallengeGrowingThrowawayEconomyinTroublePopulationandResourceConflictsEnvironmentalRefugeesontheRiseMountingStresses,FailingStatesIITHERESPONSEPLANBEradicatingPoverty,StabilizingPopulationUniversalBasicEducationStabilizingPopulationBetterHealthforAllCurbingtheHIVEpidemicReducingFarmSubsidiesandDebtAPovertyEradicationBudgetRestoringtheEarthProtectingandRestoringForestsConservingandRebuildingSoilsRegeneratingFisheriesProtectingPlantandAnimalDiversityPlantingTreestoSequesterCarbonTheEarthRestorationBudgetFeedingEightBillionWellRethinkingLandProductivityRaisingWaterProductivityProducingProteinMoreEfficientlyMovingDowntheFoodChainActiononManyFrontsWhenElizabethKolbertwasinterviewingenergyanalystAmoryLovinsforaprofilepieceintheNewYorker,sheaskedhimaboutthinkingoutsidetheboxLovinsresponded,“Thereisnobox”ThereisnoboxThatisthespiritembodiedinPlanBPerhapsthemostrevealingdifferencebetweenPlanBandPlanBisthechangeofthesubtitlefrom“RescuingaPlanetUnderStressandaCivilizationinTrouble”tosimply“MobilizingtoSaveCivilization”ThenewsubtitlebetterreflectsboththescaleofthechallengewefaceandthewartimespeedoftheresponseitcallsforOurworldischangingfastWhenPlanBwenttopresstwoyearsago,thedataonicemeltingwereworryingNowtheyarescaryTwoyearsago,weknewtherewereanumberoffailingstatesNowweknowthatnumberisincreasingeachyearFailingstatesareanearlysignofafailingcivilizationTwoyearsagotherewasearlyevidencethatthepotentialforexpandingoilproductionwasmuchlessthanofficiallyprojectedNow,weknowthatpeakoilcouldbeonourdoorstepTwoyearsagooilwas$abarrelAsofthiswritinginlate,itisover$abarrelInPlanB,wespeculatedthatifwecontinuedtobuildethanoldistilleriestoconvertgrainintofuelforcars,thepriceofgrainwouldmoveuptowarditsoilequivalentvalueNowthattheUnitedStateshasenoughdistilleriestoconvertonefifthofitsgraincropintofuelforcars,thisisexactlywhatishapPrefacePrefacexiiixiiPrefacepeningCornpriceshavenearlydoubledWheatpriceshavemorethandoubledTwoyearsago,wereportedthatinfiveofthelastsixyearsworldgrainproductionhadfallenshortofconsumptionNow,ithasdonesoinsevenofthepasteightyears,andworldgrainstocksaredroppingtowardalltimelowsAsthebacklogofunresolvedproblemsgrows,includingcontinuingrapidpopulationgrowth,spreadingwatershortages,shrinkingforests,erodingsoils,andgrasslandsturningtodesert,weakergovernmentsarebreakingdownunderthemountingstressIfwecannotreversethetrendsthataredrivingstatestofailure,wewillnotbeabletostopthegrowthintheirnumbersSomeofthenewlyemergingtrendssuchasthecomingdeclineinworldoilproduction,thenewstressesfromglobalwarming,andrisingfoodpricescouldpushevensomeofthestrongerstatestothebreakingpointOntheeconomicfront,ChinahasnowovertakentheUnitedStatesinconsumptionofmostbasicresourcesBy,whenitsincomeperpersonisprojectedtomatchthatintheUnitedStatestoday,ChinawillbeconsumingtwiceasmuchpaperastheworldcurrentlyproducesIfinthecountry’sbillionpeoplehavethreecarsforeveryfourpeople,USstyle,ChinawillhavebillioncarsAnditwillbeconsumingmillionbarrelsofoilperday,wellabovecurrentworldproductionThewesterneconomicmodelthefossilfuelbased,automobilecentered,throwawayeconomyisnotgoingtoworkforChinaIfitdoesn’tworkforChina,itwon’tworkforIndiaortheotherbillionpeopleindevelopingcountrieswhoarealsodreamingtheAmericandreamAndinanincreasinglyintegratedworldeconomy,wherewealldependonthesamegrain,oil,andsteel,itwillnotworkforindustrialcountrieseitherThechallengeforourgenerationistobuildaneweconomy,onethatispoweredlargelybyrenewablesourcesofenergy,thathasahighlydiversifiedtransportsystem,andthatreusesandrecycleseverythingAndtodoitwithunprecedentedspeedContinuingwithbusinessasusual(PlanA),whichisdestroyingtheeconomy’secosupportsandsettingthestagefordangerousclimatechange,isnolongeraviableoptionItistimeforPlanBTherearefouroverridinggoalsinPlanB:stabilizingclimate,stabilizingpopulation,eradicatingpoverty,andrestoringtheearth’secosystemsAttheheartoftheclimatestabilizinginitiativeisadetailedplantocutcarbondioxideemissionspercentbyinordertoholdtheglobaltemperaturerisetoaminimumTheclimateinitiativehasthreecomponents:raisingenergyefficiency,developingrenewablesourcesofenergy,andexpandingtheearth’sforestcoverbothbybanningdeforestationandbyplantingbillionsoftreestosequestercarbonWeareinaracebetweentippingpointsinnatureandourpoliticalsystemsCanwephaseoutcoalfiredpowerplantsbeforethemeltingoftheGreenlandicesheetbecomesirreversibleCanwegatherthepoliticalwilltohaltdeforestationintheAmazonbeforeitsgrowingvulnerabilitytofiretakesittothepointofnoreturnCanwehelpcountriesstabilizepopulationbeforetheybecomefailingstatesTheUnitedStatesappearstobeapproachingapoliticaltippingpointasoppositionbuildstotheconstructionofnewcoalfiredpowerplantsAfastspreadingnationwidecampaignhasledseveralstates,includingCalifornia,Texas,Florida,Kansas,andMinnesota,torefuseconstructionpermitsorotherwiserestrictconstructionWiththismovementgainingmomentum,itmaybeonlyamatteroftimebeforeitexpandstoembracethephasingoutofexistingcoalfiredpowerplantsThequestionis,WillthishappensoonenoughtoavoiddangerousclimatechangeInPlanB,wetalkedabouttheenormouspotentialofrenewablesourcesofenergy,especiallywindpowerSincethenwe’veseenproposedprojectstogenerateelectricityfromsuchresourcesonascaleneverseenwithfossilfuelpowerplantsForexample,thestateofTexasiscoordinatingavastexpansionofwindfarmsthatwillyieldupto,megawattsofnewelectricalgeneratingcapacity,anamountequaltocoalfiredpowerplantsTwoyearsago,thenotionofplugingaselectrichybridcarswaslittlemorethanaconceptTodayfiveleadingautomobilemanufacturersaremovingtomarketwithpluginhybrids,withthefirstonesexpectedinWehavethetechnologiestorestructuretheworldenergyeconomyandstabilizeclimateThechallengenowistobuildthepoliticalwilltodosoSavingcivilizationisnotaspectatorsportEachofushasaleadingroletoplayxivPrefaceWhenwepublishedtheoriginalPlanBfouryearsago,wenoticedthatsomeindividualsorderedacopyofthebookandthencamebackandordered,,orcopiesfordistributiontofriends,colleagues,andpoliticalandopinionleadersWithPlanB,thisnumberjumpedtomorethan,individualsandorganizationsthatwerebulkbuyinganddistributingthebookWecallthesedistributorsourPlanBTeamTedTurner,whodistributedsome,copiestoheadsofstate,cabinetmembers,FortuneCEOs,theUSCongress,andtheworld’sotherbillionaires,wasdesignatedPlanBteamcaptainThisbookcanbedownloadedwithoutchargefromourWebsitePermissionforreprintingorexcerptingportionsofthemanuscriptcanbeobtainedfromReahJaniseKauffmanatEarthPolicyInstituteAndfinally,thereisnotanythingsacredaboutPlanBItisourbestefforttolayoutanalternativetobusinessasusual,onethatwehopewillhelpsaveourcivilizationIfanyonecancomeupwithabetterplan,wewillwelcomeitTheworldneedsthebestplanpossibleLesterRBrownOctoberEarthPolicyInstituteConnecticutAveNWSuiteWashington,DCPhone:()Fax:()Email:epiearthpolicyorgWeb:wwwearthpolicyorgForadditionalinformationonthetopicsdiscussedinthisbook,seewwwearthpolicyorgPLANBDuringthelatesummerof,thenewsofacceleratingicemeltingarrivedatafreneticpaceInearlySeptember,theGuardianinLondonreported,“TheArcticicecaphascollapsedatanunprecedentedratethissummer,andlevelsofseaiceintheregionnowstandatarecordlow”Expertswere“stunned”bythelossofice,asanareaalmosttwicethesizeofBritaindisappearedinasingleweekMarkSerreze,aveteranArcticspecialistwiththeUSNationalSnowandIceDataCenter,said:“It’samazingIfyouaskedmeacoupleofyearsagowhentheArcticcouldloseallofitsice,thenIwouldhavesaid,ormaybeButnowIthinkthatisareasonableestimate”Afewdayslater,theGuardian,reportingfromasymposiuminIlulissat,Greenland,saidthattheGreenlandicecapismeltingsofastthatitistriggeringminorearthquakesaspiecesoficeweighingseveralbilliontonseachbreakofftheicesheetandslideintotheseaRobertCorell,chairmanoftheArcticClimateImpactAssessment,reportedthat“wehaveseenamassiveaccelerationofthespeedwithwhichtheseglaciersaremovingintotheseaTheiceismovingatmetersanhouronafrontkilometersmileslongand,metersdeep”EnteringANewWorldincreasesbringcropwitheringheatwaves,moredestructivestorms,moreintensedroughts,moreforestfires,and,ofcourse,icemeltingWecanseefromicemeltingalonethatourcivilizationisintroubleIftheGreenlandicesheetmelts,sealevelrisesmeters(feet)IftheWestAntarcticIceSheetbreaksup,andmanyscientiststhinkitcouldgobeforeGreenland,itaddsanothermeterstotheincrease,foratotalofmeters(feet)TheInternationalInstituteforEnvironmentandDevelopmenthasstudiedthelikelyeffectsofameter(foot)riseTheirstudyprojectedmorethanmillionrefugeesfromrisingseasMorepeoplethancurrentlyliveintheUnitedStatesandWesternEuropecombinedwouldbeforcedtomigrateinlandtoescapetherisingwatersNowthatwearebelatedlyrecognizingthesetrendsandtheneedtoreversethem,timeisrunningoutWeareinaracebetweentippingpointsintheearth’snaturalsystemsandthoseintheworld’spoliticalsystemsWhichwilltipfirstWillwereachthepointwherethemeltingoftheGreenlandicesheetisirreversibleOrwillwedecidetophaseoutcoalfiredpowerplantsfastenoughtoavoidthiswholesaleicemeltingAriseintemperaturetothepointwheretheearth’sicesheetsandglaciersmeltisonlyoneofmanyenvironmentaltippingpointsneedingourattentionWhiletheearth’stemperatureisrising,watertablesarefallingoneverycontinentHerethechallengeistoraisewateruseefficiencyandstabilizepopulationbeforewatershortagesbecomelifethreateningPopulationgrowth,whichcontributestoalltheproblemsdiscussedhere,hasitsowntippingpointScoresofcountrieshavedevelopedenougheconomicallytosharplyreducemortalitybutnotyetenoughtoreducefertilityAsaresult,theyarecaughtinthedemographictrapasituationwhererapidpopulationgrowthbegetspovertyandpovertybegetsrapidpopulationgrowthInthissituation,countrieseventuallytiponewayortheotherTheyeitherbreakoutofthecycleortheybreakdownOverthelastfewdecades,theworldhasaccumulatedagrowingnumberofunresolvedproblems,includingthosejustmentionedAsthestressesfromtheseunresolvedproblemsaccumulate,weakergovernmentsarebeginningtobreakdown,leadingtowhatarenowcommonlyreferredtoasfailingstatesEnteringANewWorldCorellsaidthatwhenflyingovertheIlulissatglacierhehad“seengiganticholes(moulins)initthroughwhichswirlingmassesofmeltwaterwerefalling”Thismeltwaterlubricatesthesurfacebetweentheglacierandthelandbelow,causingtheglaciertoflowfasterintotheseaVeliKallio,aFinnishscientistwhohadbeenanalyzingtheearthquakes,saidtheywerenewtonorthwestGreenlandandshowedthepotentialfortheentireicesheettobreakupandcoll

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