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APS-Energy Future.pdf

APS-Energy Future

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2010-09-22 0人阅读 举报 0 0 暂无简介

简介:本文档为《APS-Energy Futurepdf》,可适用于工程科技领域

AmericanPhysicalSocietyFoundedin,theAmericanPhysicalSociety(APS)isthelargestorganizationofprofessionalphysicistsintheUnitedStatesIts,membersaredrawnfromuniversities,industryandnationallaboratoriesTheAPSisoneofthepremierpublishersofinternationalphysicsresearch,maintainingprintandonlinepublications,aswellaselectronicallysearchablearchivesdatingbacktoFormorethanfortyyears,APShasalsodevotedresourcesandexpertisetoanumberofpublicpolicyareas,includingeducation,energy,innovationandcompetitiveness,nationalsecurityandscienceresearchprogramsAspartofitspolicywork,APSperiodicallypreparestechnicalanalysesonsubjectsofsignificantpublicinterestThisreportfollowsinthetraditionofpastAPSstudiesandrepresentsafreshlookatthesubjectofenergyefficiency,whichtheSocietyfirstexaminedinAPSOfficersArthurBienenstock,PresidentCherryMurrayPresidentElectCurtisCallanVicePresidentLeoKadanoffPastPresidentJudyFranzExecutiveOfficerJosephSereneTreasurerPublisherGeneSprouseEditorinChiefAmericanPhysicalSocietywwwapsorgHOWAMERICACANLOOKWITHINTOACHIEVEENERGYSECURITYANDREDUCEGLOBALWARMINGSeptemberhttp:wwwapsorgenergyefficiencyreport©AMERICANPHYSICALSOCIETYAmericanPhysicalSociety•SeptemberENERGYFUTURE:Think Efficiency|StudyGroupMembersandStaffReviewPanelMembersAcknowledgementsExecutiveSummaryGraphicsGalleryCHAPTERSChapter:IntroductionChapter:TransportationChapter:BuildingsChapter:ResearchandPolicyHighlightsMeetingAgenda(Washington,DC)MeetingAgenda(Stanford,CA)StudyGroupBiographiesTableofContents|ENERGYFUTURE:Think EfficiencyAmericanPhysicalSociety•SeptemberAmericanPhysicalSociety•SeptemberENERGYFUTURE:Think Efficiency|GeorgeCrabtreeArgonneNationalLaboratoryLeonGlicksmanMassachusettsInstituteofTechnologyDavidGoldsteinNaturalResourcesDefenseCouncilDavidGoldston,ViceChairHarvardUniversityFormerChiefofStaff,HouseScienceCommitteeDavidGreeneOakRidgeNationalLaboratoryDanKammenUniversityofCalifornia,BerkeleyMarkLevineLawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratoryMichaelLubellAmericanPhysicalSocietyTheCityCollegeofCUNYBurtonRichter,ChairStanfordLinearAcceleratorCenter,StanfordUniversityMaxineSavitzTheAdvisoryGroupDanielSperlingUniversityofCalifornia,DavisStudyGroupMembersReviewPanelMembersStudyGroupResearchandEditorialStaffStudyGroupAdministrativeStaffStudyPaginationandGraphicsFredSchlachterJohnScofieldJamesDawsonAmericanPhysicalSocietyOberlinCollegeAmericanInstituteofPhysicsJeanetteRussoAmericanPhysicalSocietyStudyAdministratorKerryGJohnsonAmericanPhysicalSocietyArtDirectorandSpecialPublicationsManagerRobertAFroschSeniorResearchAssociateScience,TechnologyandPublicPolicyProgramHarvardKennedySchoolTJGlauthierPresidentandCEOElectricityInnovationInstituteLeeSchipperFellowEmeritusUniversityofCalifornia,BerkeleyJamesSweeney,ChairProfessor,ManagementScienceEngineeringSeniorFellow,StanfordInstituteforEconomicPolicyResearchStanfordUniversity|ENERGYFUTURE:Think EfficiencyAmericanPhysicalSociety•SeptemberAcknowledgementsTheAPSexpressesitsgratitudetotheEnergyFoundationforitsgenerousfinancialsupport,especiallyfordefrayingthecostofpublicdisseminationofthereportThestudycommitteethanksthemanyexpertswhodevotedsignificantamountsoftheirpersonaltimegratisforprovidingextraordinarilyconstructiveadviceandguidance,withoutwhichthisreportcouldnothavebecomearealityThestudycommitteeparticularlywishestorecognizethefollowingindividualsfortheirassistance:DrMenahemAnderman,AdvancedAutomotiveBatteriesDrVinceBataglia,LawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratoryMsErinEBoedecker,EnergyInformationAgency,USDepartmentofEnergyMrRichardBrown,LawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratoryMrKevinCarroll,OfficeofManagementandBudgetMrReidDetchon,EnergyFuturesCoalitionMrJeromeDion,OfficeofEnergyEfficiencyRenewableEnergy,USDepartmentofEnergyDrHunterFanney,BuildingFireResearchLab,NationalInstituteofStandardsTechnologyMrJohnGerman,AmericanHondaMotorCompanyMsDianGrueneich,CaliforniaPublicUtilitiesCommissionMrDavidHamilton,SierraClubMrPatrickHughes,OakRidgeNationalLaboratoryMrRevisJames,ElectricPowerResearchInstituteDrHarrietKung,OfficeofBasicEnergySciences,USDepartmentofEnergyDrAlanDLamont,LawrenceLivermoreNationalLaboratoryMrDavidLee,EnergyStarProgram,USEnvironmentalProtectionAgencyMsVivianLoftness,CarnegieMellonUniversityMrJoeLope,AlliancetoSaveEnergyDrArunavaMajumdar,LawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratoryDrJamesMcMahon,LawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratoryDrAlanKMeier,LawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratoryDrTerryMichalski,SandiaNationalLaboratoriesMrMarkMonroe,SunMicrosystemsDrRichardNewell,DukeUniversityMsEileenO’Brien,EnergyInformationAgency,USDeptofEnergyDrArnoPenzias,NewEnterpriseAssociatesDrJuliaPhillips,SandiaNationalLaboratoriesMrEdPollock,OfficeofEnergyEfficiencyRenewableEnergy,USDeptofEnergyMrBillPrindle,AmericanCouncilforanEnergyEfficientEconomyMrDanReicher,Google,IncDrDavidRodgers,OfficeofEnergyEfficiencyRenewableEnergy,USDeptofEnergyAmericanPhysicalSociety•SeptemberENERGYFUTURE:Think Efficiency|DrArthurRosenfeld,CaliforniaEnergyCommissionDrDaniloSantini,ArgonneNationalLaboratoryMsKatherineESeiferlein,EnergyInformationAgency,USDeptofEnergyMrStephenSelkowitz,LawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratoryMrOmarSiddiqui,ElectricPowerResearchInstituteDrFredSissine,CongressionalResearchServiceDrVenkatSrinivasan,LawrenceBerkeleyNationalLaboratoryMrAnantSudarshan,StanfordUniversityDrMichaelTelson,UniversityofCaliforniaDrPaulTorcellini,NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratoryMsCathyTurner,NewBuildingsInstituteDrDavidAVandenbrouke,USDepartmentofHousingandUrbanDevelopmentMrDonVonDollen,ElectricPowerResearchInstituteMrAnantVyas,ArgonneNationalLaboratoryDrEDTate,GeneralMotorsCorporationMrCharlesZimmerman,WalMartStores,Inc|ENERGYFUTURE:Think EfficiencyAmericanPhysicalSociety•SeptemberExecutiveSummaryMakingmajorgainsinenergyefficiencyisoneofthemosteconomicalandeffectivewaysournationcanweanitselfoffitsdependenceonforeignoilandreduceitsemissionsofgreenhousegasesTransportationandbuildings,whichaccountfortwothirdsofAmericanenergyusage,consumefarmorethantheyneedto,buteventhoughtherearemanyaffordableenergyefficienttechnologiesthatcansaveconsumersmoney,marketimperfectionsinhibittheiradoptionToovercomethebarriers,thefederalgovernmentmustadoptpoliciesthatwilltransformtheinvestmentsintoeconomicandsocietalbenefitAndthefederalgovernmentmustinvestinresearchanddevelopmentprogramsthattargetenergyefficiencyEnergyefficiencyisoneofAmerica’sgreathiddenenergyreservesWeshouldbegintappingitnowNowhereintheworlddoesenergyaffectthelivesofpeoplemorethanintheUnitedStates,oneoftheworld’slargestpercapitaconsumersofthatcommodityNowhereisthestandardoflivingmorerootedinenergythanintheUnitedStates,and,withitsdefenseforcesdeployedinthemostdistantregionsaroundtheworld,nowhereisthesecurityofanationmoredependentonenergyYetonlyintimesofextremeturbulencetheOPEC(theOrganizationofPetroleumExportingCountries)oilembargoin,theoverthrowoftheshahofIraninandthePersianGulfWarinwhenpublicfrustrationbecamepoliticallyintolerabledidAmericanofficialsdevoteseriousattentiontoenergypolicyAlthoughsomeofthepolicyinitiativesyieldedsignificantbenefits,otherswereleftonthedraftingboardasthenationrevertedtoabusinessasusualenergyroutineoncetheturbulencepassedandpublicdissatisfactiondissipatedTodaytheAmericanpublicisagaindemandingthatitselectedofficialstakeactionGasolinepricesaresoaring,increasedtransportationcostsaredrivingupthecostsofgoods,andhomeheatingoilisbecomingprohibitivelyexpensiveThepeoplefeelasiftheyareundersiegeIncontrasttopreviousmarketinstabilities,however,thisonemaybemoreenduringThirtyfiveyearsago,whenOPECimposeditsoilembargo,theUnitedStateswasimportingmillionbarrelsadaytodayitimportsmillionbarrelsaday,twothirdsofthenation’sconsumptionThirtyfiveyearsago,theworld’stwomostpopulouscountries,ChinaandIndia,werepooragrariansocietiesthathadminimalneedforoiltodaytheyarerapidlydevelopingindustrialeconomieswithagreatlyincreasingdemandforenergyThirtyfiveyearsago,unfriendlynationstatesposedthegreatestrisktooilsecuritytodayterroristgroupshaveaddedsubstantiallytopotentialinterruptionsofglobalsuppliesByenactingPublicLaw,theEnergyIndependenceandSecurityActof,CongressandtheadministrationexplicitlyrecognizedthenationalsecuritythreatcreatedbyourunwholesomedependenceonforeignsourcesofoilTitlesI,IIIandIVoftheactdealspecificallywithenergyefficiencypoliciesinthetransportationandbuildingssectorGenerallythisreportneithercriticizesnorendorsesparticularportionsofthosetitles,butinsteadfocusesonthescientificandtechnologicalopportunitiesandchallengesassociatedwithimprovingenergyefficiencyinthetransportationandbuildingssectorsAmericanPhysicalSociety•SeptemberENERGYFUTURE:Think Efficiency|Withoutquestion,theUnitedStatesfacesagreaterenergyrisktodaythanithasatanytimeinitshistoryButthenationandtheworldfaceanotherriskthatwasbarelyrecognizedyearsagoGlobalwarmingandthepotentialithasforcausingmajordisruptionstoEarth’sclimatearescientificrealitiesThepreciseextentofthehumancontributiontoglobalwarmingstillneedsdeeperunderstanding,butthereisvirtuallynodisagreementamongscientiststhatitisrealandsubstantialWhetheryouwanttheUnitedStatestoachievegreaterenergysecuritybyweaningitselfoffforeignoil,tosustainstrongeconomicgrowthinthefaceofworldwidecompetitionortoreduceglobalwarmingbydecreasingcarbonemissions,energyefficiencyiswhereyouneedtostartThirtyfiveyearsagotheUnitedStatesadoptednationalstrategies,implementedpoliciesanddevelopedtechnologiesthatsignificantlyimprovedenergyefficiencyScienceandtechnologyhaveprogressedconsiderablysincethen,butUSenergypolicyhasnotItistimetorevisittheissueTheAmericanPhysicalSocietysetupitsEnergyEfficiencyStudyGrouptodojustthatforthetransportationandbuildingssectorsofoureconomyInthisreportweexaminethescientificandtechnologicalopportunitiesandpolicyactionsthatcanmaketheUnitedStatesmoreenergyefficient,increaseitssecurityandreduceitsimpactonglobalwarmingWebelievethefindingsandrecommendationswillhelpCongressandthenextadministrationtorealizethosegoalsTheopportunitiesarehugeandthecostsaresmallSomeofthetargetsweidentifycouldbeeasytoachievewithinthenextfewyearsusingexistingtechnologiesSomeofthemwillbemoredifficulttorealizeandmighttakeadecadeortwotoattainSomeareextremelychallengingandlieinthemoredistantfutureButwhatevertheireaseordifficulty,whatevertheirtimehorizon,achievingthemwillrequireintelligentpublicpolicyandseriouspubliccommitmentTheyareworthpursuingnotonlybecausetheywillprovidegreaterenergysecurityandreduceglobalwarmingbutalsobecausetheywillprovidesignificanteconomicbenefitsIdentifyingwhichsetofpoliciesislikelytohavethegreatestinfluenceonimplementingtherecommendationsofourstudysometimesliesbeyondthescopeofourreportIndeed,inanumberofcasesthechoiceofpoliciesmightrequireadditionalsocialscienceresearchintohowpeopleevaluaterisk,howtheyintegratelongtermandshorttermbenefitsandcosts,howtheyreacttoeconomictriggersandhowtheyunderstandandvaluetheenergysecurityandglobalwarmingissuesWhilethisreportfocusesonthephysicalsciencesandwaswrittenlargelybyexpertsinthatfield,thepanelstronglybelievesthatprogressinenergypolicywillbeinadequatewithoutadditionalsocialscienceresearchandwithoutimplementingwhatsocialsciencecanalreadyteachusaboutpoliciestouseenergymoreefficientlyEvenwhenwerefrainfromprescribingspecificpolicychoices,weareresoluteinourviewthatappropriatepoliciesmustbeadoptedfortechnologicaldevelopmentstohavethegreatestbenefitBeforeweaddressenergyefficiencyinthetransportationandbuildingssectors,weneedtoclarifytwoissues:()Whatwemeanby“energyefficiency”and()Whatcriteriaweusetocircumscribe“energyenduse”IncommonparlanceenergyefficiencydenotestheratioofusefulenergyorworkadeviceproducestotheenergythedeviceconsumesThismayseemanintuitivelyreasonabledefinition,butinsomecasesitistoosimplisticConsidertwohomesbothheatedwithfurnacesratedatpercentefficiency,onehomewellinsulatedandtheothersobadlyinsulatedthatittakestwiceasmuchenergytokeepitwarmThefurnacesarebothpercentefficient,but,consideredasasystem,onehomeclearlyshouldonlyreceiveapercentratingforheatingefficiencyThisexampledemonstratesthatwhat|ENERGYFUTURE:Think EfficiencyAmericanPhysicalSociety•Septembermattersishowmuchprimaryenergyittakestoaccomplishaparticulartask,ratherthansimplyhowoneelementofanintegratedsystemperformsAsanotherexample,considerthecaseofanelectricheaterItmightreceiveapercentratingasasingleelement,buttheproductionandtransmissionoftheelectricityitusescomesatagreatenergycost:onlyaboutpercentoftheprimaryenergyfromthefuel(coal,naturalgas,nuclear,etc)usedinapowerplantfindsitswaytotheheaterIdeallywewouldliketoknowtheratiooftheminimumenergyrequiredtodothejobtotheenergyactuallyusedThatissometimeshardtodo,butitisalwayspossibletocomparetherelativeefficienciesoftwomethodsforaccomplishingthesametaskInthisreport,weimplicitlyapplysuchlogicwhenweconcludethatonestrategyismoreenergyefficientthananotherSeparatingenergyendusefromenergyproductionanddeliverymayalsoseemlikeasimpletask,butitisn’tConsiderthecaseofpluginhybridcarsTheyhavethepotentialforreducinggasolineconsumptionandourdependenceonforeignoilButpluginhybridsneedelectricityforrechargingtheirbatteries,andinmostcasestheelectricitywillhavetobegeneratedcentrallyanddistributedthroughthepowergridTheefficiencyofelectricitygenerationandtransmissionmustbecountedindeterminingtheoverallenergyefficiency,sinceourdefinitionofefficiencyrequiresstartingwiththeprimaryenergysourceForverylargemarketpenetrationofpluginhybrids,electricalgenerationcapacitywillhavetobeincreasedandthegridwillhavetobeupgradedAparallelargumentappliestohydrogenfuelcellvehicles,whichwillprobablyrequirecentralizedproductionofhydrogenanddevelopmentofamajordistributionanddeliveryinfrastructureDespitetheirconnectionwithenergyproductionanddistribution,weelectedtoincludepluginhybridsandfuelcellvehiclesinourdiscussionofenergyefficiency,becausetheyhaveanextraordinarypotentialfordecreasingcarbonemissionsandincreasingourenergysecuritySomebiofuelscanreplaceforeignoilanddecreasecarbonemissions,aswell,buttheirusehaslittletodowithenergyefficiency,andthereforewedidnotconsiderthemTheseexamplesillustratetheprinciplesweappliedtocircumscribetheenergyenduseapplicationsweconsideredByadoptingsensibleenduseenergyefficiencypoliciesnow,wecanbegintocutourdependenceonforeignoil,strengthenoureconomyandreduceglobalwarmingInthebalanceoftheExecutiveSummarywehighlightthenearterm,mediumtermandlongtermopportunitiesforimprovingenergyefficiencyandtheactionsthatarerequiredtorealizetheobjectivesAmericanPhysicalSociety•SeptemberENERGYFUTURE:Think Efficiency|ForTransportationObjectivesThefueleconomyofconventionalgasolinepoweredlightdutyvehicles,whichincludecars,•sportutilityvehiclesandpickuptrucks,canbeincreasedtoatleastmilespergallonbythroughsteadyimprovementsininternalcombustionengines,transmissions,aerodynamicsandothertechnologiesThiscanbedonewithtechnologythatisavailabletodayorinthepipeline,withminimalchangesintheperformanceofcurrentvehiclesWidespreaddeploymentofhybridordieseltechnologycanimprovempgfurtherThefederalgovernment’scurrentresearch,developmentanddemonstrationprogramshould•haveabroaderfocusAmorebalancedportfolioisneedednowacrossthefullrangetoenablethedeploymentofpotentialmediumandlongrangeadvancesinautomotivetechnologiesIncreasedresearchisneededinbatteriesforconventionalhybrids,pluginhybridsandbatteryelectricvehicles,andinvarioustypesoffuelcellsThismorebalancedportfolioislikelytobringsignificantbenefitssoonerthanthecurrentprogramthroughthedevelopme

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